据Business Insider报道，微软联合创始人、亿万富翁慈善家比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）在最新一期《Decoder》播客中表示，人工智能将创造“真正的富足”，但在富足到来之前的20年，“将是与人类历史上任何时期一样动荡的一段时期”。
盖茨说，他最大的担忧是这20年过渡期，“会出现赢家和输家，也会有大量混乱”。他呼应了外界对白领岗位流失的普遍担忧，表示电话销售、电话客服和会计等岗位将消失，因为AI能够以“远为便宜、远为迅速，甚至更为准确”的方式完成这些工作；至于蓝领岗位，将由人形机器人接管。
盖茨称：“如果我们不选择大规模放慢或停止，那么我们就会拥有能盖房子、种粮食、做手术的机器人。人类劳动为经济提供的所有东西，对于大多数商品和服务来说都将不再必要。”
他还强调，这种变化足以让像他这样资源雄厚、长期带头推进消灭疟疾和应对人道主义危机的人感到冲击。“当AI对我说：‘不，我比你强，你去打匹克球吧，我会回来处理这件事’——这有点好笑，但并不可笑。”
盖茨重申自己长期以来的看法：工作对人们至关重要，它提供目标感、收入、每天出勤的理由、与同事建立关系的渠道，以及创造和解决问题的路径。他建议，艺术、体育、烹饪和育儿等活动未来可以保留给人类来做，“即使AI能做得更好”。他还提到，提前退休、限制工作小时等措施，可能有助于维持一定水平的人类就业。
盖茨设想，未来会有人说：“让我们像阿米什人那样，只在某些事情上使用AI。”这样就不必放弃“互相帮助或提出独特想法”。
报道提到，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）和摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）都曾提议缩短每周工作时间，作为AI导致失业后痛苦更小的替代方案。
盖茨是就AI就业冲击发出警告的科技领袖之一。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）预测过渡将是“颠簸的”，并提出由政府向所有人发放支票，作为应对AI导致失业的最佳方案。马斯克曾说，技术会把生产成本压到极低，让所有人都能拥有“任何想要的东西”，工作将变成“可选”，10年或20年后不值得为退休存钱，因为钱将不再重要。
Anthropic的达里奥·阿莫迪（Dario Amodei）也曾表示，AI有望“提高每个人的生活质量”，但“短期冲击的规模将空前”。
不过，OpenAI的萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）今年5月表示，AI淘汰的白领岗位没有他预期的那么多，他已不再预期会出现“就业末日”。
报道还指出，尽管外界普遍担忧AI取代企业岗位，亚马逊、Meta等大公司也出现高调裁员，但在AI热潮期间，全美失业率并未实质性上升。
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According to Business Insider, in its latest edition of Decoder podcasts, Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft and billionaire philanthropist, said that artificial intelligence would create “real wealth”, but 20 years before it came, “will be as turbulent a period as any period in human history”.
Gates said that his greatest concern was the transition period of 20 years, which would “be won and lost, and there would be considerable confusion”. He responded to the widespread concern about the loss of white collar jobs, saying that telephone sales, telephone service and accounting positions would disappear, as AI was able to do so in a way that was “far cheaper, far faster or even more accurate”; as for blue collar posts, it would be taken over by human robots.
Gates says, "If we don't choose to slow down or stop on a large scale, we'll have robots that can build houses, grow food, operate. Everything human labour provides for the economy will no longer be necessary for most goods and services.”
He also emphasized that such a change would be enough to shock those like him who have been so resourceful and long-term leaders in the drive to eradicate malaria and respond to humanitarian crises. "When AI says to me, "No, I'm better than you, go play Pike, and I'll come back and deal with this," -- it's funny, but it's not funny."
Gates reiterates its long-standing view that work is vital to people, providing a sense of purpose, income, reason for daily attendance, channels for establishing relationships with colleagues and the path to creating and resolving problems. He suggested that activities such as art, sports, cooking and childcare could be reserved for humans in the future “even if AI can do better”. He also mentioned that measures such as early retirement and limitation of working hours could help to maintain a certain level of human employment.
Gates imagines that in the future someone will say, "Let's use AI only on certain things, like the Amish." There is thus no need to give up “helping each other or developing unique ideas”.
It was mentioned that both the founders of the Amazon, Jeff Bezos, and the Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, had proposed a reduction in weekly working hours as an alternative to AI, which caused even less suffering after unemployment.
Gates is one of the technology leaders who warned about the AI employment shock. Elon Musk predicts that the transition will be “controversial” and proposes that the Government issue cheques to all as the best response to AI-induced unemployment. Mask said that technology would put production costs at a very low level, giving everyone “anything you want”, that work would become “optional” and that it would not be worth saving for retirement in 10 or 20 years, because money would no longer be important.
Dario Amodei of Anthropic also said that AI was expected to “improve the quality of life for everyone”, but that “the scale of short-term shocks would be unprecedented”.
However, in May this year, Sam Altman of Open AI stated that the white collar position that AI had phased out was less than he had anticipated and that he no longer expected a “end of employment”.
It was also reported that, despite widespread concerns about AI ' s replacement of business positions and high-profile layoffs in large companies such as Amazon and Meta, unemployment in the United States did not increase substantially during the period of the AI boom.
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