当全球科技股摇摇欲坠之际，中国科技股已经率先崩盘——过高的估值在AI需求担忧和中国出口受限的双重压力下土崩瓦解。这场暴跌使聚集了人工智能与半导体龙头的内地科创50指数在不到四个月内下跌40%，约4800亿美元市值灰飞烟灭。对已经不稳的全球市场而言，这是一个不祥的信号；对中国引导储蓄资金进入股市、为AI热潮提供融资的努力，则是一记重挫。
它也踩下了持续两年的上涨行情的刹车——这轮行情始于经济刺激承诺推动股价飙升，并让北京试图打破长期"暴涨暴跌"循环、打造"慢牛"市场的努力陷入停滞。中国蓝筹股沪深300指数已从6月高点下跌约20%。
"股市后来演变成了一场投机性的疯狂牛市，"北京基金经理董宝珍说，"现在我们看到泡沫正在破裂。"
这轮反转的背景是，中国市场的涨幅曾远高于西方和亚洲其他市场，相比之下美国AI股只是被"轻轻扎了一下"——纳斯达克指数从三周前创下的历史高点回撤了6%。在中国，并没有明显的抛售触发因素，但交易员表示，高价、税单，以及美国或其他国家可能禁止中国设备进入数据中心的威胁，都在其中起了作用。根据高盛的数据，AI股已占中国市值的42%、占内地A股和香港H股成交额的57%，在一个由散户主导的市场里，很少有人能够幸免。
散户宠儿大幅回落。机器人制造商宇树科技上市时散户超额认购8000倍，但自8月开始交易以来股价已经腰斩；芯片制造商长鑫存储过去一个月市值缩水超过四分之一。去年上市首日分别暴涨700%和400%的芯片企业沐曦集成电路和摩尔线程，自7月以来同样腰斩。
来自海南的小企业主兼投资者陈文胜说，他之所以在上涨中入场，是因为他觉得官方支持宇树科技这类公司——其股东包括国资背景基金。但如今他和朋友们都在承受亏损。对一个获得北京支持的投资主题竟以如此糟糕的方式收场，这种挫败感把许多投资者推向了防御性资产，也可能放慢科技公司的股权融资步伐。光器件制造商中际旭创和新易盛的股价较6月和7月的高点下跌约60%，部分原因是华盛顿正推动禁止这些昔日明星企业向美国数据中心供货。
科创50指数目前的市盈率仍约为100倍，虽已从近250倍的高位回落，但投资者将其与纳斯达克100指数30倍的估值相比，担心抛售在好转之前还可能进一步恶化。"现在发生的一切，会让许多试图上市的公司停下脚步，"香港浩资本管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灏说。
这场狂热及其后果，与监管层推动提高回报、抑制波动、打击杠杆和高频交易的举措形成对照。国有背景投资者曾在上涨中卖出，以压制涨幅。中国证监会未立即回复路透社上周传真提出的问题。该监管机构网站显示，证监会主席吴清本月早些时候与市场参与者会面，听取改善资本市场的建议。投资界一些人认为，这轮热潮损害了市场结构。
"过度强调'科技含量'——也就是科技公司在主要指数市值中的权重——会导致资本行为出现偏离，甚至扭曲，"北京乾创资本合伙人王磊（Leo Wang）说，"这在某些板块制造了严重的泡沫，同时让其他板块严重失血。"
也有人认为抛售中存在价值，称这对着眼于长期的改革既不意外也无损害，而这些改革近年已在提高回报尤其是收益方面取得进展。汇丰研究显示，尽管亚洲基金在过去三个月总体上是卖方，但仍超配中国。高盛本月早些时候发布的更新版推荐名单中，将中际旭创和长鑫存储等数十只中国AI股列入其中；法国巴黎银行证券策略师威廉·布拉顿也表示，市场为谨慎的投资者提供了买入机会。不过在内地，许多人仍在关注其他板块，或等待更低的估值才肯出手。
"就像所有其他中国制造商一样，（芯片制造商和AI供应商）最终都会陷入价格战，"上海卓铸投资管理合伙人、基金经理王卓说，"没有例外。所有泡沫终将破裂。"
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At a time when the global science and technology unit is shaking, China’s technology unit has been the first to collapse – overvaluation has collapsed under the double pressure of AI’s concerns and China’s export restrictions. As a result of this collapse, the 50 per cent index in the interior, which brought together artificial intelligence and semiconductors, fell by 40 per cent in less than four months, and the market value of about $480 billion was wiped out. This is a bad sign for an already unstable global market; it is a serious setback for China’s efforts to channel savings funds into the stock market and to finance the Ai boom.
It also stepped on a two-year-long upswing brake. This turn begins with an economic stimulus commitment to push stock prices up and stagnate Beijing's efforts to break the long cycle of "blow-up" and "low-cow" markets. China's blue-chorus depth 300 index has dropped by about 20 per cent from its June height.
"The stock market later became an speculative mad cow, and Beijing fund manager Dong Bo-jin said, "Now we see a bubble breaking."
In the background of this reversal, the Chinese market was much higher than other markets in the West and Asia, compared to the US AI stock that was "lightly slashed" -- – The NASDAQ index withdrew 6 per cent from its historical height three weeks ago. In China, there is no obvious push-off trigger, but traders indicate that high prices, tax bills, and the threat that the United States or other countries might bar Chinese equipment from entering data centres all play a role. According to Goldman Sachs, AI already accounts for 42 per cent of China ' s market value, 57 per cent of the deals in Mainland A and Hong Kong H, and few people are spared in a dispersed market.
It's a huge fall for the family. The manufacturer of robotics had oversubscribed 8,000 times when the technology was on the market, but the stock price had been cut since the start of the trade in August; the chip manufacturer had stored more than a quarter of its market value in the past month. The first day on the market last year saw a sharp increase of 700 per cent and 400 per cent, respectively, in the number of chip-based companies that have been cutting off their cash since July.
Chen Wen Shing, a small business owner and investor from Hainan, said that he had entered the building because he felt that there was official support for companies such as Wootree Technology, whose shareholders included the State Fund for the Environment. But now he and his friends are suffering losses. The sense of frustration that a Beijing-backed investment theme ended in such a bad way has pushed many investors to defensive assets and may slow the pace of equity financing for technology companies. The price of luminous and new shares in photoware manufacturers fell by about 60 per cent over the highs of June and July, partly because Washington was pushing for a ban on former star companies from supplying United States data centres.
The current market gain of the 50-degree index is still about 100 times higher, and although it has fallen from nearly 250 times higher, investors have compared it to the 30-fold valuation of the NASDAQ 100 index, fearing that sales may deteriorate further before they improve. "What's going on now will stop many companies trying to put on the market," Hong Kong Capital Management Partner and Chief Investment Officer Hong Zheng said.
This fanaticism and its consequences are in contrast to regulatory initiatives that promote higher returns, curb volatility, and combat leverage and high-frequency transactions. State-owned background investors have sold in the rise in order to suppress it. The CSRC did not immediately reply to the questions raised by Reuters by fax last week. The website of the Supervisory Authority shows that the Chairman of the CVM, Wu Qing, met with market participants earlier this month to hear suggestions for improving capital markets. Some members of the investment community believe that the boom has damaged market structures.
"Overemphasis on 'tech content' — i.e., the weight of technology companies in the market value of the main index — can lead to a deviation or even a distortion of capital behaviour, as Leo Wang, a capital partner in Beijing, says, "This creates a serious bubble on some plates, while causing other plates to lose their blood."
It was also argued that there was value in selling, which was neither surprising nor detrimental to long-term reforms that had made progress in recent years in increasing returns, particularly gains. HSBC studies show that, although the Asian Fund has been an overall seller for the last three months, it is still well-suited to China. Goldman Sachs included dozens of Chinese AI units, such as Middle Wrestling and Long Skull Storage, in the updated recommended list of publish earlier this month; William Braton, a securities strategist at BNP Paribas, also indicated that the market offered access to prudent investors. In the interior, however, many are still concerned about other plates or waiting for lower valuations.
"Like all other Chinese manufacturers, they end up in price battles," said Wang Zhuo, the foundation manager, and the Shanghai Casting Partner. All the bubbles will eventually burst."
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