不仅仅是东方用户。
大的，终于来了。
10 月 26 日，Anthropic 向美国证监会公开递交了 S-1 招股书，准备在纳斯达克全球精选市场挂牌上市，股票代码定为 ANT。媒体报道中，这家公司的估值讨论区间已经来到了 1.5 万亿至 2 万亿美元，发行价区间尚未披露。
24 小时内，这本 300 多页的招股书已经被科技圈和金融圈翻了个底朝天，最抓眼球的几个数字大家都看过了：2026 年上半年营收 162.86 亿美元，去年同期只有 11.63 亿美元；第二季度交出 9.74 亿美元经营利润，迎来公司历史上首个经营盈利的季度；至于账面上高达 807 亿美元的净亏损，大头是 723.88 亿美元的可转债、衍生负债和 SAFE 公允价值变动，属于非现金的会计费用。
但在这些华尔街叙事之外，国内的开发者和日常使用者有着另一种割裂的体感。在中国大陆用户眼里，Claude 大概是目前市面上封号最多、风控最严苛、用起来最让人恼火的 AI 产品。
为什么一家做出顶尖大模型的公司，在面对普通个人用户时总是显得如此冷淡？
翻完招股书的财务附注和风险提示，答案其实就写在账本上。在 Anthropic 的商业版图里，个人用户贡献的真金白银占比非常小。
01
不到 20% 的个人用户
要看懂一家公司真正在乎谁，最直接的办法就是去翻它的收入构成表。在招股书的财报附注 2 里，Anthropic 把营收拆成了两大块，一块是按用量计费的收入，另一块是订阅收入。
数据对比非常悬殊。2025 年全年，按用量计费的收入是 37.96 亿美元，订阅收入只有 7.89 亿美元，比例大约是 83% 对 17%。到了 2026 年上半年，按用量计费的收入冲到 130.64 亿美元，订阅收入是 32.22 亿美元，前者依然占到 80% 左右，订阅收入只占约 20%。
更关键的细节藏在订阅收入的构成里。这 20% 里，既有个人用户的 Claude Pro 和 Claude Max，也有企业级的 Team 和 Enterprise 套餐，招股书并没有把个人订阅单独拆出来。这意味着，个人用户掏腰包买会员贡献的收入，在 Anthropic 总营收里的占比肯定低于两成，甚至可能还要低得多。
那么，八成的按用量计费收入从哪来？答案是云厂商渠道和成千上万家企业。
通过亚马逊、谷歌、微软这几家云厂商市场卖给客户的收入，占比一路狂飙：2023 年约 11%，2024 年约 32%，2025 年约 47%，2026 年上半年约 48%。几乎半壁江山都是靠三大云巨头的分销管道撑起来的。
撑起这台印钞机的，是一批迅速膨胀的机构客户。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日，过去 12 个月贡献收入 10 万美元以上的客户（按独立组织统计），从一年前的 950 多家暴增到 11900 多家。客户结构也很健康，2026 年前 9 个月没有任何单一客户收入占比超过 10%，前五大客户合计约 25%。
招股书中的企业客户增长图：过去 12 个月贡献收入 10 万美元以上的客户，从 2023 年底约 20 家增长到 2026 年 9 月底的 11900 多家｜图片来源：Anthropic
招股书给个人付费用户专门用了一个词叫「prosumers」，定义是订阅 AI 工具来做知识工作的个人用户，比如研究人员、开发者、分析师和写作者。头衔听起来很专业，但这群人在核心财务指标面前依然处于边缘位置。
整份 300 多页的招股书，没有披露日活和月活用户数，连付费订阅人数都没有提。
最能体现这种态度的是净收入留存率。
截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日，Anthropic 的净收入留存率高达约 900%，这是一个让所有软件公司都眼红的数字。但在计算这个核心指标时，Claude Pro 和 Max 的个人订阅用户被剔除在外，理由是固定价格订阅不能反映这个指标要衡量的扩张和收缩行为。
一家公司最在意什么，就看它给投资人汇报什么指标。当一家公司不展示日活月活，算核心留存率还要把个人订户排除在外时，普通个人用户在它心目中的分量已经不言自明。
02
钱是 Claude Code 和企业挣的
既然大头是按用量计费的收入，企业客户到底在为什么烧钱？招股书把聚光灯打在了 Claude Code 身上，称其为「最具体地定义了自主 AI 工作是什么样子」的产品。
一个普通的聊天框消耗不了多少 Token，真正能把算力当水一样喝掉的，是能够自己写代码、跑测试、改 Bug 的智能体。招股书给出了一组对比：2026 年第三季度，没有使用 Claude Code 的 Claude Enterprise 用户，月均花费不到 75 美元；而使用Claude Code 的前 5% 的 Claude Enterprise 用户，花费约为前者的 20 倍。
招股书把产品形态分成三代：聊天机器人、嵌在单个应用里的 Copilot，以及能接下目标、长时间自主工作的「虚拟协作者」｜图片来源：Anthropic
这也是 Anthropic 能用精简团队撬动百亿营收的原因。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日，公司员工约 5300 人，过去 12 个月人均营收超过 660 万美元，一年前这个数字还是 140 万美元。
看懂了这台赚钱机器的运转逻辑，再看它怎么对待免费用户。
在财务记账上，免费用户消耗的算力被归入了「销售与营销」费用。财报附注写得很清楚，这项费用包括渠道合作伙伴费用、营销和广告、人员成本，以及「为免费访问提供的算力与基础设施成本」。2026 年上半年，销售与营销费用是 38.08 亿美元。换句话说，免费用户在账上是一笔获客成本。
风险因素章节把话挑得更明。公司承认，提供免费访问很大程度上是为了建立认知和使用习惯，触达在企业组织之外从事知识工作的个人，希望逐步把他们转化为付费客户；但转化可能不成功，免费层还可能蚕食付费订阅。
招股书还两次强调，公司「一直在算力受限的环境中运营，客户需求超过可用算力」。招股书没有写算力怎么在不同客户之间分配，但在算力永远不够用的前提下，一边是月费固定的个人订户，一边是花费高出 20 倍的 Claude Code 企业用户，这笔账并不难算。
招股书中的「每 1 美元算力带来的营收」图：从 2025 年第一季度的 0.40 美元，增长到 2026 年第二季度的 2.08 美元｜图片来源：Anthropic
全世界的 Pro 和 Max 用户都在经历额度和限流的变化。对此，Anthropic 在风险因素里坦白：我们曾经改变、将来也可能改变用量上限、速率上限，或模型和产品能力，这可能损害我们的声誉以及产品在用户心中的价值；其中一些变化已经引发、将来也可能引发指控，称我们关于模型访问或能力的披露不充分或有误导性。
知道改配额会挨骂、会伤及声誉，Anthropic 还是把这条写进了招股书，提前给投资人打了预防针。
03
作为「火种」的用户
既然个人用户贡献的收入这么少，还要消耗受限的算力，Anthropic 为什么不干脆关掉个人端，彻底做一家后台接口供应商？
这正是招股书里的微妙之处。个人用户在收入账本上分量很轻，在商业扩张的链条上却有不可替代的战略价值。
他们是帮 Anthropic 攻入企业内部的火种。
招股书复盘了这个增长飞轮。到目前为止，Claude 的扩散很大程度上是自发的，由软件开发者和专业个人用户推动。这些人自己先用上 Claude，再在所在组织内部推动更大范围的采用，省去了建立庞大直销团队的麻烦。官方直言，这种方式让他们能用比其他大型企业科技公司更小的团队实现规模化。
软件开发者是其中最核心的群体。招股书认为，他们懂系统怎么运作，在评估技术工具上有公信力，经常在内部推动采用新技术，赢得他们的信任，是 Claude 在企业员工中更广泛扩散的基础。
看清了这层逻辑，就能明白免费算力为什么会记在「销售与营销」账目下。给个人用户提供服务，本质上是 Anthropic 的获客手段：一个程序员先自己用起来，回公司说服团队采购 Enterprise 套餐，最后把整个研发流程接进按量计费的 Claude Code。
但这种模式有一个软肋。招股书承认，它假设个人采用会继续转化为组织层面的采用。在风险因素里，Anthropic 警告投资人，拥有更强消费者业务、更大用户群、更成熟品牌的公司可能加大对企业客户的投入；如果这些竞争对手通过消费者应用等方式抢走了「我们企业采用的起点」，也就是个人用户，公司业务可能受到不利影响。
这就构成了一种拧巴的局面。Anthropic 需要个人用户帮它做口碑、做企业内部的推动者，生怕竞争对手把这群人抢走；与此同时，招股书又明确表示，公司的研究优先级、产品路线图和市场团队全都围绕企业使用场景来组织。
它需要你当火种，但核心资源都在为企业服务。当企业大单涌入、算力又捉襟见肘时，最先被限制氧气供应的，偏偏是火种自己。
04
披着消费级外衣的 To B 公司
合上这本招股书，Anthropic 的真实面目已经很清晰：它本质上是一家 To B 公司。为了获客和构建生态，它把产品做成了一个人人都能上手的聊天框，真正的生意是向上万家企业兜售按量计费的算力和自主干活的 Agent。
招股书中的产品结构图：底层是 Mythos、Opus、Sonnet、Haiku 四个模型系列，中间是开发者平台，最上层是交付给企业客户的价值｜图片来源：Anthropic
至于国内用户最敏感的封号问题，招股书也有一句制度上的交代：公司有「支持地区政策」，并实施基于 IP 的地理封锁，限制特定地区访问其模型、平台和应用。中国大陆本来就不在它的服务地区范围内。
当一家估值冲击两万亿美元的公司，把筹码都押在企业工作流和代码智能体上，个人用户在它眼里的位置只会越来越靠后。
只是不知道，当越来越多吃了闭门羹的开发者转身投向其他竞争对手，Anthropic 还能不能守住它引以为傲的企业采用起点？
*头图来源：Anthropic
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Not just Eastern users.
Great, finally.
On October 26th, Anthropic publicly presented to the US SEC a S-1 stock call for listing at NASDAQ Global Select Market, with an ANT stock code. In media reports, the company ' s valuation discussion has reached between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, with no disclosure of the distribution price range.
Within an hour, the 300-page book has been turned upside down in the scientific and financial circles, and several of the most striking figures have been seen: $168.86 billion in the first half of 2026, compared to $1.163 billion in the same period last year; $974 million in operating profits in the second quarter, which ushered in the first quarter of the company ' s history; and a net loss of $80.7 billion on the books, with a large amount of $72,388 million in reversible debt, derivative liabilities and a change in the fair value of SAFE, which is a non-cash accounting cost.
But beyond these Wall Street narratives, domestic developers and daily users have a different sense of fragmentation. In the eyes of mainland Chinese users, Claude is probably the most heavily sealed, wind-restricted, and gruesome AI product on the market.
Why does a company that makes the best LLM always look so cold when dealing with ordinary individual users?
When the financial notes and risk tips are completed, the answer is actually on the books. In Anthropic, the share of real money and silver contributed by individual users is very small.
01
Less than 20% of individual users
It depends on who a company really cares about, and the most immediate way is to look at its income composition. In note 2 to the financial statements of the book of solicitation, Anthropic broke the account into two blocks, one for revenue from usage and the other for subscriptions.
The data contrast very widely. For the full year of 2025, revenues by usage amounted to US$ 3,796 million and subscriptions to only US$ 789 million, representing about 83 per cent versus 17 per cent. By the first half of 2026, revenues from subscriptions, which still account for about 80 per cent and about 20 per cent of the US$ 13,644 million by usage, reached US$ 32.22 billion.
More critical details are found in the composition of subscription income. This 20% includes both Claude Pro and Claude Max for individual users, as well as a business-level Team and Enterprise package, which does not separate individual subscriptions. This means that individual users pay their members for their contribution, which must be less than 20 per cent, or even much lower, of the total income of Anthropic.
So, where does 80% of the revenue come from? The answer is cloud business channels and thousands of businesses.
Revenues sold to clients through the Amazon, Google and Microsoft cloud-manufacturing markets represent a proportion of the total amount of money spent: around 11 per cent in 2023, about 32 per cent in 2024, about 47 per cent in 2025 and about 48 per cent in the first half of 2026. Almost half of the mountain is supported by the distribution channels of the three giant clouds.
The money-printer was supported by a rapidly expanding group of institutional clients. As of 30 September 2026, the number of clients (in independent organizations) who had contributed more than $100,000 over the past 12 months increased from over 950 a year ago to over 11,900. The client structure is also healthy, with no single client income in the first nine months of 2026 exceeding 10 per cent, and the top five clients together amounting to about 25 per cent.
The growth of corporate clients in the book of admissions: Over the past 12 months, more than $100,000 of clients contributed to income, from about 20 at the end of 2023 to over 11,900 at the end of September 2026: Anthropic
The Qpaid user was given a specific term, “prosumers”, defined as individual users who subscribe to the AI tool for intellectual work, such as researchers, developers, analysts and writers. The title sounds professional, but the group remains marginalized from the core financial indicators.
The entire 300-page book of calls did not disclose the number of daily and monthly subscribers, nor did it mention the number of paid subscribers.
This attitude is best reflected in net income retention rates.
As of 30 September 2026, Anthropic had a net income retention rate of about 900 per cent, a figure that made all software companies eye-red. However, when calculating this core indicator, Claude Pro and Max's individual subscribers were excluded on the grounds that fixed-price subscriptions did not reflect the expansion and contraction that the indicator was measuring.
What a company cares about is what it reports to investors. When a company does not show daily or monthly life, the core retention rate excludes an individual subscriber, the weight of an ordinary individual user is self-evident.
02
The money was made by Claude Code and the company.
Now that the big guy's a pay-as-you-go, why are the corporate customers burning money? The collection book placed a spotlight on Claude Code, calling it a product that "defined in the most specific way what autonomy AI works".
Token, a regular chat box, can't really drink the math like water, is a AI agent that can write the code, run the tests, change Bug. The book provides a set of comparisons: in the third quarter of 2026, Claude Enterprise users who did not use Claude Code spent less than $75 a month, while Claude Enterprise users, who used the top 5 per cent of Claude Code, spent about 20 times more.
The book divides the product into three generations: chat robots, Copilot, embedded in a single application, and "virtual collaborators" who can meet their targets and work on their own for a long time. Photo by Anthropic
And that's why Anthropic was able to use a streamlined team to pry out the billions. As at 30 September 2026, the company had about 5,300 employees, and over $6.6 million had been collected per capita over the past 12 months, compared with $1.4 million a year earlier.
Understands the logic of how this money-making machine works and how it treats free users.
In the financial records, the calculation of the cost of free user consumption is classified as “sales and marketing”. The notes to the financial statements clearly state that this cost includes the costs of channel partners, marketing and advertising, personnel costs, and "calculations and infrastructure costs for free access". In the first half of the year, sales and marketing costs were US$ 3.808 billion. In other words, a free user is a cost to the client.
The risk factor section is more explicit. Companies recognize that free access is largely intended to create cognitive and user habits that reach individuals working in knowledge outside of business organizations who wish to gradually transform them into paid clients; however, conversion may not be successful and the free layer may encroach on paid subscriptions.
The equity book also highlighted on two occasions that the company " has been operating in an environment of limited capacity and that the demand of clients exceeds the capacity available ". It's not hard to calculate how to distribute it between different customers without the ability to write, but it's not hard to calculate when it's never enough, when it's a fixed personal subscriber, and when it's 20 times more expensive than Claude Code.
The book of admissions, "The revenue per dollar": from $0.40 in the first quarter of 2025 to $ 2.08 in the second quarter of 2026: Anthropic
Pro and Max users around the world are experiencing quota and rate limit changes. In response, Anthropic confesses to the risk factors: we have changed, and may change in the future, the maximum usage, the maximum rate, or model and product capacity, which may damage our reputation and the value of the product in the user ' s mind; some of these changes have triggered, and may in the future trigger, allegations that our disclosure of model access or capability is inadequate or misleading.
Knowing that a change in the quota would be subject to abuse and damage to reputation, Anthropic wrote it in a stock call and pre-empted investors.
03
As a user of "fire seed"
Now that the income of individual users is so small and so much of the limited credit, why not just shut down the personal side and become a back-office provider?
That's the subtlety of the book. Individual users have a low value on their income books and an irreplaceable strategic value in the chain of business expansion.
They're helping Anthropic break into the fire within the company.
This growth wheel was rewinded in the book. So far, Claude ' s proliferation has been largely spontaneous and driven by software developers and professional individual users. These people themselves use Claude and then promote wider adoption within their own organizations, saving themselves the trouble of creating a large direct sales team. Officially, this approach allows them to scale up with smaller teams than other large corporate technology firms.
Software developers are the core group. According to the book, they understand how the system works, have credibility in the assessment of technical tools, often promote the adoption of new technologies internally and win their trust, and are the basis for Claude ' s wider proliferation among the enterprise ' s employees.
When you see this logic, you can see why free computing is recorded under "sales and marketing" accounts. Providing services to individual users is essentially an Anthropic buy-in: a programmer uses them first, goes back to the firm and convinces the team to purchase the Enterprise package, and finally connects the entire R & D process to Claude Code at a charge rate.
But this pattern has a soft side. The book recognizes that it assumes that individual adoption will continue to be translated into organizational adoption. Among the risk factors, Anthropic warns investors that companies with a stronger consumer business, a larger user base, and a more mature brand may increase their investment in business clients; if these competitors take "the starting point for our business" – that is, individual users – through, for example, consumer applications, the company’s business may be adversely affected.
This constitutes a twisted situation. Anthropic needs a personal user to help it become a reputation and an insider of the enterprise, fearing that its competitors will take the group away; at the same time, the equity book makes it clear that the company’s research priorities, product road maps and the market team are all organized around the enterprise’s use of scenes.
It needs you to be a flame, but core resources are working for the business. The first to be limited in oxygen supply is the fire itself, when firms are in large numbers, and are overstretched.
04
To B in a consumer coat.
The real face of Anthropic is clear: it's essentially a To B company. In order to win and build the ecology, it makes the product a chat box in which everyone can talk, and the real business is to sell the Agent to thousands of businesses for the credit and self-employment of their own.
The product structure in the book: the bottom is Mythos, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, the four model series, the middle is the developer ' s platform, and the top is the value delivered to business clients. Photo by Anthropic
With regard to the most sensitive seals for domestic users, there is also an institutional narrative in the book: the company has a "support of regional policies" and applies an IP-based geographical blockade that limits access to its models, platforms and applications in specific areas. The mainland of China was not in its area of service.
When a company whose valuation hit $2 trillion and placed its chips on the business workflow and code AI agent, the individual user ' s position in its eyes was only increasing.
It's just that, as more and more of the closed-door developers turn to other competitors, can Anthropic still hold the starting point for its proud business?
* Headline source: Anthropic
This article is an original article from Polar Park.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Gem Box. All rights belong to the original author.