10月29日，《华尔街日报》周三发文称，多年来，苹果公司一直拥有强大的议价能力，对闪存芯片供应商予取予求，要求获得行业最低价，甚至审计供应商的账目。然而，AI需求改变了这一局面，供应商们“翻身”了，他们转而对苹果收取更高售价。
吃亏的供应商
在南加州沙漠的一次骑行中，销售高管斯科特·纳尔逊(Scott Nelson)停下越野摩托车，掏出一支步枪，朝自己那台旧iPod开了一枪。
纳尔逊曾向苹果销售闪存芯片，却始终觉得自己在交易中吃尽了亏。他所在的日本制造商铠侠几乎没有议价能力。苹果是全球最大的闪存采购商，这些芯片被用于iPhone，用来存储照片、音乐和应用程序。苹果利用自身的市场地位，竭力从供应商身上榨取每一分钱。它还迫使闪存制造商公开账目，以便监控销售情况，确保没有其他客户获得更优惠的价格。
铠侠和其他闪存制造商对此一直耿耿于怀：苹果以极低的价格向他们采购闪存，却将这些存储产品以高出许多倍的价格卖给消费者。纳尔逊对双方议价能力的巨大差距深感不满，甚至以使用Android手机的方式表达抗议。
苹果内存成本大幅上升
纳尔逊一直留着那台被打坏的iPod的残骸。那是苹果首款采用闪存的设备。如今，随着局势逆转，这些残骸摆在他的办公桌上，具有了格外特殊的意义。
研究机构TechInsights称，过去一年，AI超大规模数据中心运营商的需求已将闪存价格推高至原来的5倍，为铠侠等供应商开启了一个新时代。TechInsights估计，两年前，苹果采购的闪存容量几乎是微软、亚马逊、Meta和Google四家公司总和的两倍。如今，超大规模云服务商采购的闪存量已是苹果的两倍。
“报应”
今年夏天，在加州圣克拉拉举行的行业最大会议上，闪存供应商及其销售团队私下闲聊时，毫不掩饰对苹果“报应”的幸灾乐祸。AI领域的交易让铠侠的销售高管及其他闪存供应商获得了新的议价筹码，得以向苹果收取更高的价格。
今年，Meta、微软和亚马逊与铠侠签订了合同，承诺支付更高价格，以确保长期稳定的闪存供应。这些合同还能在市场行情逆转时保障铠侠的利润。该公司拒绝置评。
超大规模云服务商有能力支付更高的价格。与制造一部iPhone相比，闪存在建设数据中心的成本中占比更小，而且会计规则允许企业将这部分成本分摊到未来数年里。
TechInsights估计，苹果今年在闪存存储上的支出预计将达到250亿美元，而2025年苹果仅花费60亿美元，就采购了大致相同数量的闪存。苹果执行董事长Tim Cook(Tim Cook)将不断上涨的存储芯片价格比作“百年一遇的洪水”。
误判市场
然而，据知情人士透露，苹果此前对分析师的警告置若罔闻，结果被打了个措手不及。
这些人士称，苹果高管曾自认为比任何人都更了解市场。2005年每GB售价68美元的闪存，到2023年已跌至5美分。而如今，AI行业的需求已将其价格推高至每GB超过30美分，涨幅达550%，威胁到苹果通过销售额外存储空间所获得的高额利润率。
去年，购买iPhone 17 Pro的消费者多花200美元，就能将存储空间在256GB基础上翻倍。据《华尔街日报》分析，当时这部分额外存储对苹果而言成本为15美元，如今已飙升至66美元。
闪存供应商开始对苹果涨价
“苹果历来在内存供应商面前极力压价，”TechInsights分析师沃尔特·库恩(Walt Coon)说，“如今，随着双方力量对比发生变化，供应商们的不满情绪得到了充分宣泄。”
苹果在一份声明中表示：“多年来，我们一直与许多供应商保持合作关系，双方数十年来建立的伙伴关系对我们而言弥足珍贵。我们期待未来继续与他们开展重要合作。”
闪存毛利率超80%
《华尔街日报》发现，从最初推出iPhone和iPad到2025年，苹果向这两类设备用户收取额外存储容量费用时，平均每收取1美元，就能获得超过80美分的毛利。对于2010年以来售出的Mac电脑，苹果的平均毛利也接近每美元80美分。
近几个月，苹果上调了几乎所有产品的价格。iPhone的价格平均上涨了13%，其中还包括一些通常会降价销售的旧款机型。
对苹果而言，问题在于，消费者是否会因为价格上涨而延长iPhone的使用年限，还是会继续按照以往的节奏购买新机。对闪存制造商来说，问题则是苹果何时能够、或者是否能够重新获得在闪存市场上的议价优势。
“苹果与闪存行业之间的关系一直是爱恨交织。”伯恩斯坦研究公司分析师马克·纽曼(Mark Newman)表示。他说，多年来，苹果为这些制造商提供了稳定的市场需求，但苹果压低价格的能力虽然有利于股东，却让供应商觉得自己“吃了大亏”。
2001年，铠侠(当时名为东芝)的工程师向两位苹果高管展示了一款他们研发出的1.8英寸直径、5GB容量的硬盘，但当时还不知道该拿它做什么用。
一位了解这次会面的人士透露，苹果高管当即意识到，这款硬盘非常适合他们正在秘密推进的项目。苹果买下了这款小型硬盘的独家使用权。它后来成为iPod的核心部件，而iPod也成为苹果的一款爆款产品。
iPod开始使用闪存
随着闪存技术问世，数据存储技术又向前迈进了一大步。事实证明，闪存更适合消费电子设备。与内部装有旋转磁盘、容易发生故障的硬盘不同，闪存是一种没有活动部件的芯片。它体积更小、存储容量更大，而且功耗更低。
2005年，苹果利用闪存推出了iPod Nano，这款音乐播放器比铅笔还薄。当时，苹果预付了12.5亿美元，从五家公司锁定了截至2010年的闪存供应。供应商看到了商机，纷纷兴建更多工厂。2007年6月，苹果推出了采用闪存技术的智能手机iPhone，彻底改变了消费电子行业。
随着iPhone大获成功，苹果开始占据全球五分之一以上的闪存供应量。据TechInsights估计，苹果每年为此花费30亿美元至40亿美元，并成为全球最大的闪存采购商。
强硬压价
苹果对闪存存储的巨大需求进一步增强了自身的议价能力，供应商也只能接受苹果提出的要求，将价格压到全行业最低水平。闪存制造商同样能从苹果的大额订单中获益，因为芯片制造的固定成本极高，工厂必须满负荷运转才能实现盈利。
苹果还有另一种强硬的谈判手段：拒绝作出采购承诺。苹果以极低的价格下单后，有时会在闪存价格下跌时拒绝接收货物。这导致供应商积压了大量滞销芯片，其中甚至包括专为苹果定制的产品。铠侠高管曾开玩笑说，他们感觉自己就像查理·布朗(美国漫画主角)，试图踢起足球时，露西却总是在最后一刻把球抽走。
这种僵持局面往往以供应商进一步下调苹果的采购价格而告终。
推动这一策略的关键人物是托尼·布莱文斯(Tony Blevins)，他曾担任苹果采购部门负责人。供应商表示，他因谈判手段巧妙，也有人认为手段冷酷无情，而获得了“布莱文斯终结者”的绰号。
布莱文斯强硬压价
布莱文斯在2022年离开苹果。他有时会安排供应商接连参加谈判会议，让相互竞争的销售团队有机会碰面，从而加剧彼此之间的竞争压力。销售代表们逐渐学会随身携带能量棒，以便在谈判过程中补充体力。苹果高管有时会把谈判拖到午夜之后，期间甚至不安排晚餐休息。
布莱文斯以扮演“黑脸”著称，这种声誉也为他的团队带来了谈判筹码：如果合同条款不符合他们的要求，他们就会威胁说要把布莱文斯叫来。
一项重要的合同条款赋予苹果审计供应商账目的权利。据了解这些协议的人士透露，闪存制造商通常必须将苹果列为“最优惠客户”，确保其他任何买家获得的价格都不会低于苹果。苹果通过审计核实，确保没有其他客户以更低的价格采购闪存。
知情人士透露，十多年前，苹果发现美光以更低的价格向另一家客户出售闪存，随后通过仲裁获得了数千万美元的和解赔偿。苹果对供应商的审计频繁到了一定程度，以至于布莱文斯与审计机构德勤谈下了批量折扣。
据了解苹果采购业务的人士透露，苹果的审计还让这家iPhone制造商得以直接掌握闪存供应商业务运营的第一手信息，包括工厂车间内各类机器的产量。这些信息使苹果的谈判人员能够判断，每家供应商对大额订单的需求究竟有多迫切。
据IDC估计，去年约有1亿名iPhone用户为升级存储容量额外付费，以便更好地存储高清视频、下载内容、短信附件以及占用大量数据空间的应用程序。
许多用户花费200美元，将存储容量增加256GB；还有人花费高达800美元，增加1.75TB存储空间。《华尔街日报》的分析显示，按85%的利润率计算，这为苹果带来了超过100亿美元的毛利。Mac和iPad用户也会选择升级存储容量，进一步为苹果贡献数十亿美元收入。当设备空间不足时，苹果还按月收取iCloud存储费用。
争斗
多年来，闪存供应商一直试图扭转局面，争取在谈判中占据上风。
2015年底前后，闪存制造商闪迪拒绝了苹果要求增加供货的请求，因为当时已有其他客户愿意支付更高的价格。一位了解这通电话的人士透露，布莱文斯威胁要报复闪迪的一名销售人员，声称他会让闪迪CEO桑杰·梅赫罗特拉(Sanjay Mehrotra)“跪着爬回来求苹果”。
据了解这一策略的人士透露，2017年前后，闪存供应趋紧。闪迪的新东家西部数据要求Apple Pay一笔费用，以预留闪存芯片，但并不承诺一定向苹果出售任何芯片。
布莱文斯对此勃然大怒。据了解双方往来情况的人士透露，他在办公室的白板上写下当天的日期，并特意圈了起来，随后将白板照片发给西部数据高管迈克·科尔达诺(Mike Cordano)，扬言日后一定会报复。
一年后，闪存价格下跌，布莱文斯终于等到了报复的机会。据了解这次会面的人士透露，科尔达诺和同事杰里·卡格尔(Jerry Kagele)带着一张退款支票来到布莱文斯的办公室，希望借此缓和关系。知情人士表示，布莱文斯要求他们今后绝不能再收取预留费，两人同意了这一要求，双方通过握手达成了协议。
知情人士称，作为惩罚，布莱文斯告诉这两人，如果西部数据希望苹果采购其闪存芯片，就必须付钱给苹果，让苹果对这些芯片进行测试。即便如此，苹果也没有义务购买任何芯片。
随后，布莱文斯让苹果安保人员将两人送出了办公室。
整个行业的低谷出现在2023年。疫情期间居家办公带来的设备需求热潮逐渐退去，闪存价格跌至每GB仅5美分。伯恩斯坦研究公司估计，当年闪存行业经营亏损达190亿美元，而苹果仅靠销售额外闪存存储容量，就获得了140亿美元毛利。
铠侠销售高管纳尔逊表示，那段日子十分艰难，“我希望我们再也不要经历那样的时期”。
本文由 AI宝库自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
On 29 October, the Wall Street Journal wrote on Wednesday that Apple had for many years had a strong bargaining power to demand flash chip suppliers and to obtain industry minimum prices and even audit supplier accounts. However, AI demand changed the situation, with suppliers “turning over” and instead charging higher prices for apples.
The poor supplier.
During a ride in the desert of Southern California, the executive Scott Nelson stopped the off-road motorcycle, pulled out a rifle and shot his old iPod.
Nelson had sold flash chips to apples, but had always felt he had lost everything in the deal. His Japanese manufacturer Zhang Man has little bargaining power. Apples are the largest flash buyers in the world and are used in iPhone to store photographs, music and applications. Apples use their market position to extract every penny from their suppliers. It has also forced flash manufacturers to open their accounts in order to monitor sales and ensure that no other customer receives more favourable prices.
The Zaman and other flash manufacturers have been obsessed with this: apples buy flashes for them at very low prices and sell them to consumers at many times more. Nelson was deeply dissatisfied with the huge gap in bargaining power between the two sides, even expressing his protest by using the Android phone.
The cost of apple memory has risen dramatically.
Nelson kept the remains of that broken iPod. That's the device for flashing apples. Today, with the reversal of the situation, these wreckages are placed on his desk, with particular significance.
The research institute TechInsights stated that over the past year, the demand of AI super-large data centre operators had increased the flash price to five times, opening a new era for suppliers such as the Mantis. TechInsights estimated that, two years ago, apples purchased almost twice as much flash capacity as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google combined. Today, super-massive cloud service providers purchase twice as many flash stocks as apples.
“Retribution”
This summer, at the largest industry conference in Santa Clara, California, flash suppliers and their sales teams were talking in private without hiding the joy of the apple’s “requirement.” Transactions in the area of AI have allowed Zhang Man's sales executives and other flash suppliers to obtain new bargaining chips and to charge higher prices to apples.
This year, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon entered into a contract with the Zhang Man to commit to pay higher prices to ensure a long-term stable flash supply. These contracts can also guarantee the profits of the Zhang Man in the event of a reversal of market conditions. The company refused to comment.
Mega-scale cloud service providers are able to pay higher prices. The cost of establishing a data centre is smaller than that of manufacturing an iPhone, and accounting rules allow enterprises to spread this cost over the coming years.
TechInsights estimated that apples were expected to spend $25 billion on flash storage this year, while apples cost only $6 billion in 2025, purchasing roughly the same amount of flash. Executive Chairman Tim Cook compared rising storage chip prices to “hundred year floods”.
Miscalculation of markets
However, according to sources, Apple had previously ignored the analyst ' s warnings and was caught by surprise.
According to these sources, Apple executives thought they knew the market better than anyone. The flash of $68 per GB sold in 2005 fell to 5 cents by 2023. Today, however, demand in the AI industry has pushed its price to over 30 cents per GB, an increase of 550 per cent, threatening the high profitability of apples by selling additional storage space.
Last year, consumers who bought iPhone 17 Pro spent $200 more, doubling storage space on 256 GB. According to the Wall Street Journal analysis, the cost of this additional storage was $15 for apples at that time and has soared to $66.
Flash suppliers are starting to raise the price of apples.
“The price of apples has historically been pressurized in front of the memory suppliers”, the TechInsights analyst, Walt Coon, says, “Today, as the power of the parties changes, the displeasure of the suppliers is fully discharged.”
In a statement, Apple stated: “For many years, we have been working in partnership with many suppliers, and the partnership that has been established between the two sides for decades is invaluable to us. We look forward to continuing our important cooperation with them in the future.”
Over 80% flashback.
The Wall Street Journal found that, from the initial launch of iPhone and iPad to 2025, apples charged extra storage capacity charges to users of both types of equipment at an average of US$ 1 to obtain over 80 cents of Maori. For Mac computers sold since 2010, the average paddy of apples is also close to 80 cents per dollar.
In recent months, apples have increased prices for almost all products. The price of iPhone increased by an average of 13 per cent, including some old money machines that are usually sold at reduced prices.
For apples, the question is whether consumers will prolong the life of iPhone because of price increases or will continue to buy new machines at the same pace as in the past. For flash manufacturers, the question is when or whether apples can regain their bargaining advantage in the flash market.
"The relationship between apples and the flash industry has always been a mixture of hate." According to Mark Newman, an analyst at Bernstein Research. He said that over the years, apples had provided these manufacturers with a stable market demand, but the ability of apples to lower prices, while benefiting shareholders, had allowed suppliers to feel “at large losses”.
In 2001, the engineers of the Zhang Man (then known as Toshige) showed the apple executives a hard drive of 1.8 inches in diameter, 5GB capacity that they had developed, but did not know what to do with it.
One person who was aware of the meeting revealed that Apple Executive was immediately aware that the hard drive was well suited to the project they were secretly advancing. Apple bought exclusive access to this small hard drive. It later became the core component of iPod, and iPod became an explosive product of apples.
iPod starts flashing
Data storage technologies have taken a big step forward with the advent of flash technologies. Flashing has proved more appropriate for the consumption of electronic equipment. Unlike a hard drive with a rotational disk, which is prone to failure, flashing is a chip with no active component. It is smaller in size, has a greater storage capacity and is less utilised.
In 2005, Apple used the flash memory to launch iPod Nano, a music player that is thinner than a pencil. At that time, apples prepaid $1.25 billion and targeted flash supplies from five companies up to 2010. Suppliers saw business opportunities and built more factories. In June 2007, Apple introduced iPhone, a smartphone using flashing technology, which radically transformed the consumer electronics sector.
With the great success of iPhone, apples began to account for more than one fifth of the global flash supply. TechInsights estimates that apples spend between $3 billion and $4 billion a year for this purpose and are the world ' s largest flash buyers.
Hard price.
The huge demand for flash stocks of apples has further enhanced their bargaining power, and suppliers can only accept the request of apples to press prices to the lowest industry-wide level. Flash manufacturers can also benefit from large orders for apples, as the fixed cost of chip manufacturing is extremely high and the plant has to run at full capacity in order to be profitable.
Apples also have another strong negotiating tool: a refusal to make a purchase commitment. Apples sometimes refuse to receive goods when flash price falls when they are placed on very low prices. This has resulted in a significant backlog of late-sale chips from suppliers, including even apple-specific products. The Mandarin executive joked that they felt like Charlie Brown, and when they tried to play football, Lucy always pulled it out at the last minute.
This stalemate has often ended with a further reduction in the purchase price of apples by suppliers.
The key driving force behind this strategy is Tony Blevins, who was the head of the Apple Purchase Department. The supplier indicated that he had been given the nickname “Blevens Terminator” because of the cleverness of the means of negotiation and the callousness of the means.
Brivens has a hard-on.
Brevens left the apple in 2022. He sometimes arranges for suppliers to participate back-to-back in negotiating sessions, giving competing sales teams an opportunity to meet, thus increasing competitive pressure on each other. Sales delegates have gradually learned to carry energy sticks with them in order to supplement their physical strength in the negotiation process. Apple executives sometimes delay negotiations until after midnight, without even scheduling dinner breaks.
Brevens is known for his "black-face" reputation, which also brings negotiating chips to his team: If the terms of the contract did not meet their requirements, they would threaten to bring Brevens in.
An important contractual clause gave Apple the right to audit the accounts of the supplier. According to those who are aware of these agreements, flash manufacturers usually have to classify apples as “the most advantageous customer” to ensure that no other buyer receives less than apples. The apples were verified through an audit to ensure that no other customers purchased flashbacks at lower prices.
According to informed sources, more than a decade ago, Apple discovered that Miyuki had sold flash money to another customer at a lower price, and then obtained tens of millions of dollars in settlement compensation through arbitration. Apple audits of suppliers were so frequent that Brevens negotiated a volume discount with the auditing agency Deloitte.
According to those who knew about the apple procurement business, the apple audit also allowed the iPhone manufacturer to have first-hand information directly on the operation of the flash vendor, including the production of various machines in the plant workshop. This information enables apple negotiators to determine how much each supplier needs for large orders.
IDC estimates that over the past year about 100 million iPhone users added paid to the upgraded storage capacity to better store high-resolution video, download content, text message attachments and applications that occupy a large amount of data space.
Many users spend $200 to increase storage capacity by 256 GB; others spend up to $800 to increase storage space by 1.75 TB. The Wall Street Journal analysis shows that, at 85 per cent of the profit margin, this brought over $10 billion in Maori for apples. Mac and iPad users will also choose to upgrade their storage capacity and contribute billions of dollars to apples. Apples also charge monthly for iCloud storage when the equipment space is insufficient.
Fighting
For many years, flash suppliers have tried to turn the situation around and to gain the upper hand in the negotiations.
After the end of 2015, Flashmaker Moody rejected Apple ' s request for additional supplies, as other customers were willing to pay higher prices. One person who had knowledge of the call revealed that Brevens threatened to retaliate against a salesman in Médi, claiming that he would make Sanjay Mehrotra “crawl back on his knees and beg for apples”.
According to those who know about this strategy, the flash supply has been tightening around 2017. Moody ' s new Easter data requires Apple Pay to set aside flash chips, but does not promise to sell any chips to apples.
Bravaves is angry about this. According to sources who knew about the two sides, he had written the date on the white board of his office and had taken a special look at it. He then sent pictures of the whiteboard to Mike Cordano, Western Data Manager, threatening to retaliate in the future.
A year later, flash price fell, and Brevens finally waited for revenge. According to those who were aware of the meeting, Kordano and his colleague Jerry Kagele had come to the office of Breves with a refunded cheque in the hope of easing the relationship. Both informed sources indicated that they had been asked by Brevens not to charge any further retention fees in the future, and that they had agreed to that request, and that the parties had reached an agreement by shaking hands.
According to the source, as a punishment, Breves told the two people that if Western data wanted apples to buy their flash chips, they had to pay the apples to test them. Even so, apples are not obliged to buy any chips.
Subsequently, Breves asked Apple Security to remove the two men from the office.
The industry as a whole experienced a low in 2023. During the epidemic, the demand for equipment from home-based offices gradually receded, with flash prices falling to only 5 cents per GB. Bernstein Research estimates that the flash trade lost $19 billion that year, while apples earned $14 billion in Maori by selling additional flash storage capacity.
According to Zaman's executive Nelson, that was a difficult time, “I hope we will never go through that again”.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Gem Box. All rights belong to the original author.