文｜巨潮WAVE，作者 | 老鱼儿，编辑｜杨旭然
2026年10月23日，注定是中国影视行业一个值得被记住的节点。
这一天，国内首部获得国家电影局公映许可证的AI全流程院线长片《三星堆：未来往事》正式登陆全国影院，100分钟的超写实影像里，所有角色均为原创数字形象，没有一位真人演员出镜。
同样是在这天，国务院办公厅印发的《关于适应人工智能技术发展助力构建就业友好型发展方式的意见》被公布，其中明确提出要“有效减缓人工智能应用就业替代影响”，“稳慎把握人工智能在劳动密集型行业应用的范围、力度、节奏，尽可能减少对从业人员的冲击”。
一边是AI正式拿到院线市场的“身份证”，生成式AI打造的虚拟角色们从短视频、短剧的小屏幕一路冲进了传统影视的核心阵地；另一边是顶层设计开始为AI替代就业敲响警钟。
夹在这两者中间的，是拥有百万量级从业者的演员行业正在经历一场惨烈的洗牌，AI正在给这个行业划下一条清晰的斩杀线。
这条线之上，是依赖人生阅历、情感层次与即兴表达的复杂表演艺术；这条线之下，是可以被拆解、被描述、被重复的标准化表演劳动。
而绝大多数基层演艺从业者都站在了这条线的下方，承受着技术浪潮最直接的冲击。
寒意
影视行业的寒意，即便是金字塔尖的明星，也感同身受。
2026年7月，金钟奖视帝赵又廷在接受《人物》杂志采访时坦言，自己上半年只收到了10个剧本邀约，而在他事业的鼎盛时期，一个月收到的剧本都远多于此。
同样的焦虑也发生在贾乃亮身上。2026年6月，他在直播间直面网友“为什么一直带货不拍戏”的疑问，直白地说出“无戏可拍”四个字。这位曾拿下华鼎奖的科班演员形容自己处境尴尬：“演长辈不够格，演偶像够不着”，导演找上门的机会越来越少。
更有明星集体“求职”的名场面，发生在2026年6月的微博电影之夜。董子健、刘昊然、程潇等明星更在意的不是获奖、走红毯，反而频频向现场的导演、制作人们示好，“期待有更多工作”。
如果说头部演员尚且拥有聚光灯下的曝光权，能为自己争取机会，那么身处行业中下层的群众演员，根本连发声的机会都没有。
最惨烈的变化发生在横店。今年第一季度，横店短剧开机量同比锐减四分之三，曾经一棚难求的摄影棚，空置率逼近80%。
2025年鼎盛时期，群演天不亮就去演员公会门口排队，通告多到接不完；到2026年，公会门口常常空荡荡的。官方数据显示，横店累计注册的“横漂”累计超过15万人，但每天放出的普通群演有效通告只有700到800个。
中国新闻周刊8月份报道，超六成基层演员春节后几乎处于零收入状态，有人转行送外卖，有人回了老家，还有人就地在横店街头摆摊卖起了小吃。
更值得关注的是，两年前还是风口的短剧行业形势也已经急转直下。
此前，头部短剧演员日薪能开到5万到10万元，中腰部演员日薪也能稳定在1500到2000元。但进入2026年，头部演员的日薪直接跌到1万元上下；中腰部演员的日薪更是被砍到500到800元。行业收缩的速度远超想象，某头部短剧公司2025年签下200多名演员，到2026年已经解约超过百人，留下的演员也大多处于半待业状态。
就在真人演员不断退场的同时，AI演员正大踏步走上舞台中央。
2026年3月，曾出品《安家》《九重紫》等头部真人剧的耀客传媒，突然官宣签约两位AI数字艺人秦凌岳和林汐颜，同步推出AI剧集《秦岭青铜诡事录》。这两位数字艺人不仅有自己的影视作品，还开通了抖音、小红书等社交账号，像真人艺人一样更新日常、接商务合作。
随后聿潇传媒等多家公司跟进签约AI演员，数字艺人开始成批量地进入影视生产体系。
中国AI短剧数量已经呈现出爆发式的增长。中国网络视听协会发布的数据显示，2026年第一季度，全行业上线微短剧约12.8万部，其中AI微短剧达到12.2万部，占比超过95%。
碾压
AI能在短短一年时间里几乎接管短剧行业，最大的因素无疑是成本。
此前，传统真人短剧的制作模式早已成熟：单部成本普遍在50万到100万元，剧组常规配置40到50人，从选角、搭景、拍摄到后期，整个周期大概两到三个月。
技术的成熟直接击穿了短剧的成本。行业内最低端的流水线AI短剧，3000到5000元成本、3个人的团队、5天时间就能产出80集；主打精品化的AI短剧，成本也大多在10万到20万元之间，制作周期7到14天，团队只需要3到8人。
曾在今年年初爆火的《斩仙台真人AI版》，制作方可梦智能CEO熊昺辉给出过明确数字：12人团队、30天制作周期、10万元算力成本，整体制作成本仅为同体量真人短剧的四分之一。如果算上演员档期协调、场地租赁、重拍补拍等隐性成本，AI的成本优势还要更大。
成本疯降的背后，是技术端跨过了关键的可用性门槛。
从2025年底到2026年初，主流视频生成模型在人物一致性、口型同步、镜头调度上集体突破。尤其是在玄幻、末世、年代这些强架空题材已经可以稳定输出，画面质感达到了“短剧可用”的水平。
当技术不再是障碍，资本和平台自然会用脚投票，转向效率更高、成本更低的生产方式。
能轻易被AI碾压的背后，真人短剧自身的“脆弱底色”也是实际存在的问题。短剧从兴起之日起，就伴随着情节套路化、表演脸谱化、人物功能化的批评。
甚至可以说，在绝大多数短剧中人物的角色功能几乎是固定的：反派负责嚣张打脸，下属负责点头附和，长辈负责催婚施压，路人负责惊叹起哄。他们不需要复杂的内心戏，不需要层次丰富的情绪，只需要站在指定位置，说完指定台词，完成一个反转或者一个笑点。
这些短剧输出的实际上是将表演异化成了一种机械的、重复的表演劳动。而在AI的逻辑里，这样的劳动可以被清晰地拆解成动作、表情、台词三个模块，可以被标准化地描述、无限次地重复。“可以被标准化描述”，恰恰是生成式AI最擅长的。
当一个角色的全部价值就是说三句台词、做一个生气的表情，那么用AI生成和用真人出演，对观众来说几乎没有区别，对制片方来说却能省下超过九成的成本。
这种情况下，被替代几乎是必然的。
空间
所以，如果要抵抗AI的入侵，从业人员仍要从演员的自我修养入手。斩杀线之上的复杂表演，依然是人类的专属领地。
现在的AI，已经可以精准地完成皱眉、落泪、大笑、愤怒这些基础情绪，可以按照指令做出行走、转身、打斗这些标准动作。
但它很难复刻复杂情感的层次，更无法捕捉即兴反应里的各种微妙表现。就像它无法准确认知淑柔得知丈夫再婚后平静表情下的内心波澜，也无法复刻徐福目睹好友死亡后的情绪爆发。这些才是演员作为一个职业真正的壁垒。
这个逻辑放在任何一个行业都成立。AI划下的斩杀线，针对的永远是标准化、重复性的劳动，而不是职业本身。
比如翻译行业。在生成式AI普及之前，普通商务函件、产品说明书、日常资讯类的文本翻译，是海量初级译员最主要的收入来源。而如今AI对标准化文本的翻译准确率已突破95%，单千字成本不足人工的十分之一，交付效率更是高出数十倍。
中国翻译协会发布的《2026 中国翻译行业发展报告》显示，AI对初级译员的替代效应明显。但同时，该报告也指出，需要中高级水平翻译人才的企业仍然占比四成以上，“高级水平人才因其不可替代性反而更为稀缺。”
再比如客服行业，Gartner的调研数据显示，到2026年，对话式AI已经能帮呼叫中心减少约800亿美元的人力成本。标准化的订单查询、密码重置、业务咨询等初级客服岗位，替代率已经达到85%到90%。
但与此同时，处理高端投诉、复杂纠纷、定制化需求的人工客服不仅没有减少，反而变得更重要了——他们需要解决AI解决不了的问题，承接更复杂的用户情绪。
技术在淘汰低端劳动的同时，也在抬高更高端职业的门槛。从某种意义上说，AI在抢饭碗的同时，更是来筛人的。
对于演员以及其他真正受到AI威胁的行业从业者来说，这或许是最坏的时代，但在斩杀线之上，永远有不会被技术夺走的东西。
本文由 AI宝库自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
♪ We've got a big ♪
On 23 October 2026, China was destined to be a memorable node in the film industry.
On that day, the country's first full-flow-of-the- processor, " Three Stars: The Future ", with a licence from the National Film Board, officially landed at the national cinema in a 100-minute overwritten image of all players in the original digital image, with no real actor.
Also on that day, the State Council's Office issued an Opinion on Adapting to the Helping Power of Artificial Intelligence to Build Employment-Friendly Development, which explicitly stated that it was “effectively mitigating the effects of the employment substitution of artificial intelligence applications” and that it was “sure to grasp the scope, strength, pace of application of artificial intelligence in labour-intensive industries and to minimize the impact on practitioners”.
On the one hand, AI's official access to a “ID card” in the court line market, and on the other hand, the generation of AI's virtual players stormed from short video, short screens into the core of traditional video; on the other hand, top-level design began to ring alarms for AI's alternative employment.
In the middle of both, the actor industry with a million-volume practitioner is going through a terrible shuffle, and AI is drawing a clear line for the industry.
Above this line is complex performing arts that rely on life experience, emotional level and improvisation; below this line is a standardized performance work that can be broken down, described and repeated.
The vast majority of grass-roots performers are at the bottom of this line and bear the most direct impact of the technological wave.
Cold.
Even the stars at the top of the pyramid share the coldness of the film industry.
In July 2026, during an interview with The Person magazine, the King Chung Prize stated that he had received only 10 offers of scripts in the first half of the year, while at the height of his career, he had received far more scripts a month.
The same anxiety happened to Jamayan. In June 2026, his face-to-face friend, “Why has he been carrying goods and not filming”, stated the word “no action”. The author, who had won the Hua Ding Prize, described himself as being in an awkward position: “The role of the elders is not enough to be an idol”, and the director is less and less likely to come to the door.
A more popular “job search” scene took place on the night of the microblogging film in June 2026. The stars such as Dong Jian, Liu Yan and Cheng Zheng are more concerned than winning the prize and walking through the red carpet, but are more often shown to the directors and producers of the scene and “seeing more work”.
If the head actor still has the right to be exposed under the spotlight and can get an opportunity for himself, there is no opportunity to make a sound in the middle of the industry.
The most tragic changes occurred in the cross-border shops. In the first quarter of this year, there was a sharp reduction of three-quarters in the number of short operas opened in the troupe, with an almost 80 per cent vacancy rate in one of the hard-to-reach studios.
At the peak of 2025, the crowds were lined up in front of the Actors' Club, which was often empty by 2026. According to official data, the cumulative number of “floating” registered in the cross-sections is over 150,000, but only 700 to 800 regular group performances are distributed daily.
In August, China Newsweek reported that over 60 per cent of grass-roots actors were in almost zero-income status after the Spring Festival, with the transfer of take-aways, the return home of individuals and the sale of snacks on the streets of the cross-storey.
Of even greater concern is the fact that the situation in the short play industry, which was still in the air two years ago, has changed dramatically.
Before that, the daily salary of the head short-time actor was 50,000 to 100,000 yuan, and the daily salary of the Chinese waist actor was set at 1,500 to 2,000 yuan. In 2026, however, the daily salary of the head actor fell directly to 10,000 yuan or less; the daily salary of the middle waist actor was cut to 500 to 800 yuan. The contraction of the industry is far more rapid than can be imagined, with over 200 actors signed in 2025 by one of the leading drama companies, with more than 100 out of them by 2026, and most of the remaining actors are still in semi-working condition.
Just as the real actors are dropping out, the AI actors are walking to the center of the stage.
In March 2026, when the front-runner media, such as " Anne ", " Nine-Turkish ", was published, the official suddenly announced the signing of two AID artists, Qin Lingjie and Lin Tyuyan, for the simultaneous launch of the AI series " Qin Lingqing Qin Qin Qin Qin Qing Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qing Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Qin Zhong Zhuiqi Zhui ", was published. The two digital artists not only have their own video, but have also opened social accounts such as Douyin, REDnote, which update daily, business cooperation like real artists.
A number of companies, including the media, then followed up on the signing of AI actors, and digital artists began to enter the video production system in bulk.
The number of short plays in China has shown an explosive increase. According to data from the China Networked Audiovisual Association publish, in the first quarter of 2026, there were approximately 128,000 industry-wide micro-short dramas, of which 122,000 were in AI, or more than 95 per cent.
Crush
AI can almost take over the short play industry in just one year, and the biggest factor is undoubtedly cost.
Previously, the production model of the traditional reality short play had matured: the cost of a single one was in the range of $500,000 to $1 million, and the group was routinely staffed with 40 to 50 people, ranging from the cornering, setting and filming to post-production, a cycle of about two to three months.
The technological maturity directly pierces the costs of the short play. The lowest-water-line AI shorts in the industry can produce 80 out of 3,000 to 5,000, three-person teams, five days; the main quality-of-a-AI shorts also cost between $100,000 and $200,000, with a production cycle of 7 to 14 days and a team of only 3 to 8 people.
At the beginning of this year, when the fire broke out, the first version of the "Ai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-Tai-To-To-To-To-To-To-K, a team, a team of 12 The cost advantage of AI is even greater if hidden costs such as actor stage coordination, site rental and re-shooting are included.
Behind the fall in cost is that the technological end has crossed the critical serviceability threshold.
From the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the mainstream video generation model was a collective breakthrough in character consistency, oral synchronization and shot movement. In particular, in the ages and ages, these powerful objects have been able to be steadily exported, and the image quality has reached the level of “feasible short play”.
When technology is no longer an obstacle, capital and platforms will naturally vote to more efficient and less costly production.
Behind the back of the AI., the reality shorts themselves are a real problem. From the very beginning of the short play, it was accompanied by criticism of routing, face-speculation and the functionalization of people.
It can even be said that the role of the characters in the vast majority of short operas is almost fixed: the rebels are responsible for bragging, the subordinates are responsible for nodding, the elders are responsible for forcing the marriage and the roadmen are responsible for stunning. They don't need a complex inner play, they don't need a layer of emotion, they just have to stand in a designated position, they say dialogue line, they do a reverse or a laughter.
The short play outputs actually alienate performances into a mechanical, repetitive performance work. In AI ' s logic, such work can be clearly broken down into action, expression, and dialogue line modules, which can be standardized and repeated indefinitely. "can be standardizedly described," which is exactly what generate AI does best.
When the full value of a role is to say three words dialogue line, to make an angry look, it's almost the same for the audience to generate and perform with the real person, and it saves more than 90 percent for the producer.
In such cases, substitution is almost inevitable.
Space
Therefore, if the invasion of AI is to be resisted, practitioners will still have to start from the actor ' s self-care. Complex performances on the line of killing remain the exclusive preserve of humanity.
Now AI has been able to accurately complete the basic emotions of frowning, tearing, laughing, anger, walking, turning and fighting as ordered.
However, it is difficult to reset complex emotional layers, much less capture the subtle manifestations of improvisation. Just as it could not accurately recognize the internal inclement of a husband ' s calm look after his remarriage, nor could it mark the emotional outburst after Seo Fu witnessed his friend ' s death. These are the real barriers to an actor as a profession.
This logic is established in any industry. AI's cut-off line always targets standardized, repetitive labour, not the occupation itself.
Like the translation industry. The translation of generic business correspondence, product instructions and daily information is the most important source of income for primary translators before the generation of AI. Today, however, AI has exceeded 95 per cent in the translation of standardized texts, with a cost of less than one tenth per 1,000 words per person, and delivery efficiency is dozens of times higher.
The China Translation Association publish ' s 2026 China Translation Industry Development Report shows that AI ' s substitution effect for junior translators is evident. At the same time, however, the report notes that more than 40 per cent of enterprises requiring mid-level and senior-level translators are still in need of “senior-level talent, which, because of its non-replacement, is more scarce”.
For example, in the customer service industry, Gartner's research data show that by 2026, Dialogue AI has been able to reduce the call centre's human costs by about $80 billion. Standardized service positions such as order queries, password replacement and business consulting have reached 85 to 90 per cent replacement rates.
At the same time, however, rather than decreasing, manual passenger service to handle high-end complaints, complex disputes and customized demand has become more important — they need to address unsolved AI issues and take on more complex user sentiments.
Technology, while phasing out low-end jobs, is raising the threshold for higher-level jobs. In a sense, AI is a sifter while he's out.
This may be the worst time for actors and others who are really threatened by AI, but there will never be anything to be taken away from by technology on the line of killing.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Gem Box. All rights belong to the original author.