文 | 最话FunTalk，作者 | 魏霞
“第三方软件几乎都不能通过语音自动使用，连最简单的打开哔哩哔哩网站搜索功能都不行。”
一位在京东购买了豆包手机的用户，在努比亚官方旗舰店留下这样的一条评论。
上个月，豆包二代手机发布，这其实算得上是努比亚真正面向消费者的首款AI智能体手机，因为豆包一代手机还是停留在“技术预览版”的层面。
在豆包手机发布前夕，二手平台上的黄牛们就卯足了劲，准备大赚一笔。毕竟一代豆包手机发布后，官方定价只有3499元，但在二手平台上未拆封机型报价都翻倍，甚至一度炒到上万元。
但让黄牛们没有预想到的是，虽然二代豆包手机在京东上的预约量突破37万，远远高于备货量，但并没有延续一代的抢购潮。
二代豆包手机正式发售价为5999元起，二手平台上的“黄牛价”也从加价1000元，一路下滑到199元，到最后甚至不需要黄牛入场，开售半个小时大部分机型都是有货状态。
这个月，上线仅一个月的豆包手机更是直接宣布降价，京东平台上高配版本已经降价700余元。
某种程度上，豆包与努比亚的这次合作，很像当年赛力斯与华为的联手，可能双方意图也在此，要通过软硬件一体化，实现弯道超车。
但不同于汽车生态相对比较早期，手机生态已然非常成熟，这在很大程度上造成了突破的壁垒比较高。
10月14日，豆包手机助手公布的拒绝操作应用清单涉及155款应用，微信、淘宝、美团等高频应用都在其中。
这在一定程度上给现有或潜在消费者泼了一盆冷水。但从另一个角度来看，消费者本身就是一个宽泛的概念。
消费5000元手机的人也许会在意AI是否可以调用微信和美团，但消费1000元手机的人很可能会给出不同的答案。
当豆包手机定位于5000元档时，无论是字节还是努比亚都忽略了双方本就拥有的消费基础，那就是老年群体。
可能他们才是最需要豆包手机的人。
01
在推出豆包手机之前相当长一段时间内，努比亚在市场上的存在感很低。
IDC发布的数据显示，2026年第二季度ZTE（中兴通讯）在中国智能手机市场上的份额为0.3%，排名第九。
努比亚作为中兴通讯旗下的品牌，虽然没有单独统计的市场份额，但参考中兴通讯的市场份额，不难看出已经成为绝对的“小众品牌”。
在IDC发布的数据中，还有一个值得关注的数据是，在中国智能手机市场上，前六大品牌就占据着约96%的市场份额，几乎涵盖全价位段的市场。
而努比亚还能在小众市场占据着一席之地，靠的是“摄影手机”、“电竞手机”、“老年手机”等细分标签。从努比亚京东自营旗舰店的销量来看，小牛系列的产品是其“明星产品”之一，销量已经超过4万台。
努比亚小牛目前在京东的售价为999～1099元，再结合国家/地方补贴以及银发补贴等各种优惠，消费者到手价都在千元以内。
努比亚的客服告诉我们，这款手机很受老年群体的欢迎。
价格当然是一方面，另一方面是努比亚小牛还有适老模式，比如大字版的界面，以及AI智慧语音等方便老年人操作，用户只需要动动嘴就能打电话或者查天气。
相比于山寨百元机，仅1000元的努比亚小牛可以说很有性价比。
小牛系列虽然不是努比亚目前手机热卖榜上位于榜首的手机，但算得上是“长青系列”。
目前努比亚手机热卖榜前五名大多都是近两个月发布的新款手机，只有小牛系列的上市时间已经超过两年。
在努比亚小牛系列手机已经验证了老年市场的潜力时，豆包同样也在老年群体中广受欢迎。
豆包目前月活已经超过4亿，另有QuestMobile数据显示，2026年1月，豆包50岁以上用户的月活规模已经达到607万。
虽然老年用户的占比看起来并不算高，但是老年用户使用AI的习惯已经被豆包培养起来，小到查看天气预报，大到倾诉心事，通过精准攻克老年用户的痛点，越来越多的老年人成为豆包的重度用户。
由此可见，老年群体应该是努比亚和豆包重合度相当高的消费群体，按照此人群画像进行市场开发，应该说是最顺势而为的选择。
02
其实，老年机也的确到了需要迭代的关口，因为厂商的传统盈利模式已经受到了社会舆论的广泛挑战。
众所周知，安卓手机厂商主要有两个盈利渠道，一个是靠卖手机，一个是靠卖广告，尤其对于中低端手机来说，后者至关重要，这在很大程度上反向激励了手机上的广告生态。
小红书上有一位用户分享自己被手机广告霸屏的视频。
起因是该用户在手机中查看天气时，点进了“央视天气”视频，下方便出现很多推荐视频，其中就有一个“手机垃圾缓存已满”的提醒，该提醒页面还有“清理”和“删除”两个按键。
这位用户点击“删除”后，手机就像被接管了一样，开始不受控制地打开各种“应用”。如果仔细观察，不难发现接二连三打开的广告中，有的是“假关闭按钮”，有的则是“摇一摇跳转”。
想要关闭这些广告，别说对于视力退化、反应迟缓的老年人们来说很难，就算是年轻人误触概率也很高。
而这些广告能像病毒一样不断弹出跳转，背后主要是快应用在作祟。
但公允来说，快应用的诞生并非为了给用户广告暴击，它是为了对标小程序而来的。
2017年，微信小程序正式上线。不需要下载，不会占用手机内存，在微信上就能快速启动，甚至跟微信账号关联还能一键登录，真正做到轻量化。
这种“用完即走”的体验，迅速培养起用户使用小程序的习惯。有数据显示，微信小程序上线当月月活只有6万，但一年后，这个数据达到4.72亿，而且在微信中的渗透率就达到51.9%。
这让手机厂商们感受到前所未有的危机。用户们对APP的依赖程度降低，会直接影响到手机厂商们的收入，为了对抗小程序，安卓手机厂商们联盟推出对标小程序的“快应用”。
而努比亚就是这个联盟中重要的一员。
与小程序一样，快应用同样不需要安装就能使用APP功能。这本可以大大提高安卓用户们的使用体验，但现实情况却是，快应用诞生已有8年有余，现在其存在的价值似乎就剩下打广告了，甚至被用户唾弃为安卓机的“毒瘤”。
一般情况下，APP开发者变现有两种方式：一种是IAP，也就是在应用内购，比如一些长视频应用，用户需要充值购买会员服务，另一种是IAA，也就是广告变现。
目前IAA模式已经非常普及且成熟，是APP开发者们完成商业化闭环的重要路径。
市面上，除了字节跳动穿山甲等互联网广告商外，手机厂商也有自己的广告商业化平台，比如华为有鲸鸿动能广告联盟、小米有米盟等。
就拿鲸鸿动能来说，2025年广告主数量增长200%，接入全球第三方媒体超10.7万家。
APP开发者们想要靠广告变现，只需要把这些厂商提供的代码塞进自己的APP中，就算是把APP内的“广告位”给卖出去了。
这套模式后来也照搬到快应用上，而且与APP相比，快应用打广告时更加“天赋异禀”。
以前开发者想要拿到广告收入，前提是用户至少在手机上已经下载相应的APP，但有了快应用，这个前提被打破了，而且让广告主们惊喜的是，广告跳转也更短，不需要经历“下载APP”的路径，就可以直接跳转到目标快应用。
这种“点击即调起”的模式，对用户的承接极其顺畅，减少了过程中的用户流失，这对游戏、电商、小说、短剧等广告主有着天然的吸引力。
2024快应用开发者大会公布数据显示，快应用用户规模已突破7.5亿，商业化规模已经达到160亿元，开发者数量超过3万。
这160个亿不仅对开发者有价值，对厂商又何尝不是。
今年以来，存储芯片价格持续上涨，顶不住成本压力的手机厂商们，要么涨价，要么干脆停售中低端机型，头部品牌们发布的百元新机更是寥寥无几。
但如果厂商的品牌无法支持高端化，那必然还得留守中低端市场，例如老年机市场，对于这部分机型来说，硬件的利润已经薄如刀片，那就必须在软件生态上有所获益。
但快应用这条路，可能很难再走下去了。
03
因为AI助手出现了。
手机行业无疑正在再经历又一次“小程序时刻”，只不过这次“对抗”联盟的主体从手机厂商，变成了各大应用厂商们。
在理想状态下，用户不再需要辗转打开手机上的各种APP使用功能，只需要把需求告诉AI助手，AI助手就能通过“屏幕自动化操作”技术，让AI通过理解屏幕，模拟人操作手机，完成各种任务。
豆包手机的争议，其实是移动互联网从“APP为中心”到“Agent为中心”的范式转移过程中必经的阶段。
比如一些AI操作手机的过程中可能涉及的一些安全风险，可能还会对各大应用厂商们曾经的商业化闭环路径提出挑战。
当AI取代人的浏览动作，过去的推荐算法机制或许就会被颠覆，甚至手机上的APP们还能直接沦为“底层工具”，不论是对广告收入还是会员收入，都会产生很大的影响。
但这并不意味着，AI手机的发展会止步于此。
其实不止是努比亚，在中国智能手机出货量连续六个季度下滑的背景下，很多手机厂商都开始寻找出路，而AI手机就是方向之一。就连大模型公司也不愿意错过AI手机的风口，比如阶跃星辰就已经发布智能体手机STEPX Neo。
努比亚虽然至今都没有挤进国产手机品牌的第一梯队，但AI手机确实可能成为其重要的突破口，尤其是老年AI手机。
其实对于用户来说，微信、美团这些高频软件无法被AI助手调用，体验并不会差很多。因为大家仍然可以通过点选APP，进入相关软件。
真正急需革新体验的是那些很容易调起快应用的需求，地图导航、医院挂号，查天气、问菜谱等，不高频，入口不熟悉，但又很刚需。
如果豆包通过内嵌，帮用户实现这部分功能的AI调用，体验优化，那真是功莫大焉。
当然，还有重要的一点是，豆包手机还有望解决老年群体长期被广告打扰的困扰。
对于一些以点击量和下载量为最终目标的广告来说，老年机就是最好的培养皿，手机自带的新闻推送、天气应用，甚至是日历里到处都是设计好的广告位，让人防不胜防。
而有了豆包等AI手机后，为了被选择和使用，APP们也会进行一些GEO优化，这其中可能就包括减少、清除掉一些广告。
但从目前情况来看，豆包手机想要做成老年机，还要继续优化成本，目前高端机的定价已经把大多数老年人排除在外。
而且目前通过晒单等活动，豆包手机也只赠送半年的会员权益，后续还需要用户根据自己的需求续费。
其实豆包手机不需要着急讨好所有人，它可以先照顾好那些最需要照顾的人。
本文由 AI宝库自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
"FunTalk," by Wei Xia.
“None of the third-party software can be used automatically through voice, not even the simplest Bilibili site search function.”
A user who purchased Doubao mobile phones in Kyoto left such a comment at the official flagship shop in Nubiya.
Last month, Doubao’s second-generation mobile phone, publish, was actually the first real consumer-oriented AZAI agent phone in Nubian, because Doubao’s first-generation mobile phone was still at the level of a “technology preview” version.
On the eve of Doubao mobile phone publish, the cows on the second-hand platform were ready to make a fortune. After all, after a generation of Doubao mobile phone publish, the official price was only $3499, but the unopened machine price on second-hand platforms doubled, even to tens of thousands.
But what the cows did not expect was that, although the second generation of Doubao phone appointments in Kyoto exceeded 370,000, which was far higher than the supply, there had not been a continuation of a generation-long wave of shopping.
The official sale price for second-generation Doubao mobile phones was $599, and the “cow price” on the second-hand platform went down from $1,000 to $199, and eventually it did not even need to enter, and most of the machine type was available for half an hour.
This month, the Doubao mobile phone, which has been on the line for only one month, announced a direct price reduction, and the high-matched version of the Kyoto platform has been reduced by over $700.
To a certain extent, this cooperation between Doubao and Nubian is much like the association of Cyrus and Wah of the year, and perhaps the intention of both sides here is to achieve a curved supercar through the integration of soft and hardware.
Unlike the relatively early car ecology, however, mobile phone ecology has become very mature, and this has largely created higher barriers to breakthrough.
On 14 October, a list of rejected applications published by Doubao mobile phone assistants covered 155 applications, all of which were high-frequency applications, such as WeChat, Zoo, and the American Corps.
To some extent, this has spilled cold water on existing or potential consumers. From another perspective, however, consumers themselves are a broad concept.
People who spend $5,000 on mobile phones may be concerned about AI's access to WeChat and the American Orchestra, but people who consume 1000 will probably give different answers.
When Doubao's mobile phone is located in the 5,000 dollar range, neither byte nor Nubian ignores the already existing consumption base of both sides, namely, the old age group.
Maybe they're the ones who need Doubao phones most.
01
Nubia's presence in the market was low for quite some time before the Doubao mobile phone was launched.
Data from IDCpublish show that in the second quarter of 2026, the share of ZTE (China News) in the Chinese smartphone market was 0.3 per cent, ranking ninth.
Nubian, as a brand under the medium communications flag, does not have a single market share, but with reference to the market share of the medium communications, it is easy to see that it has become an absolute “small brand”.
In the IDCpublish data, there is also a case for concern that the top six brands account for about 96 per cent of market shares in the Chinese smartphone market, covering almost the full price segment.
And Nubian has a place in the small market, with disaggregated labels such as “photographic phone”, “electrical phone”, “older phone”. The calf series is one of its “star products” and has sold more than 40,000 units, according to sales from the Nubian flagship shop.
Nubian calves are currently sold at 999 to 1099 yuan in Kyoto, and in combination with various concessions such as State/local subsidies and silver subsidies, the prices of consumers are within a thousand dollars.
Nubia's customer service tells us that this phone is very popular with the elderly.
Prices are, of course, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the Nubian calves and old-fashioned models, such as large-text interfaces, and the Ai smart voice, which are user-friendly to call and check the weather.
A mere $1,000 of Nubian calves can be said to be very valuable compared to the $100 machine.
The calf series, though not the number one cell phone on Nubian's current hot list, is called the Green Series.
The top five Nubian mobiles are now mostly new phones for almost two months publish, and only the calf series has been on the market for more than two years.
Doubao is also popular among the older age groups when the Nubian calves have tested the potential of the elderly market.
Doubao is now living over 400 million a month, and QuestMobile data show that in January 2026, the monthly size of Doubao50 users reached 6.07 million.
Although the proportion of older users does not seem to be high, the habit of using AI for older users has been nurtured by Doubao, ranging from looking at weather forecasts to talking about things, and by precision in addressing the pains of older users, an increasing number of older persons become Doubao users.
It follows that the older age group should be a consumer group with a fairly high degree of convergence between Nubian and Doubao, and that market development based on the image of the group should be the most favourable option.
02
In fact, it is true that the age machine has reached a point where it needs to be repeated, because the traditional patterns of profitability of producers have been widely challenged by public opinion.
It is well known that Anjo mobile phone manufacturers have two main profit channels, one for the sale of mobile phones and the other for advertising, which is crucial, especially for medium- and low-end mobile phones, which in turn has largely stimulated the advertising ecology on mobile phones.
REDnote has a user who shares a video of his being blocked by a mobile phone ad.
This is due to the fact that the user, when viewing the weather on his mobile phone, clicks on the "Ocean Weather" video, which facilitates the appearance of many recommended videos, including a reminder that the "cell phone trash cache is full" and that there are two “cleaning” and “delete” keys on the page.
When the user clicked "Delete", the mobile phone began to open the various applications uncontrollably as if it had been taken over. If you look closely, it is not difficult to find that in successive advertisements, there are “false shut buttons” or “shock and roll”.
To close these advertisements, it is difficult for older persons with impaired vision and slow reactions, even if young people have a high probability of error.
And these ads are constantly ejecting like viruses, and they're mainly fast-drived.
But, fairly speaking, fast application was not born for the purpose of advertising users, but for the purpose of decorating a small program.
In 2017, the WeChat applet was officially online. There is no need to download, no access to mobile memory, quick start on WeChat, and even a one-click connection to WeChat account, which is actually light quantization.
This experience of “defunct walking” quickly develops user habits for the use of small programs. According to data, the WeChat applet had only 60,000 live monthly, but one year later it had reached 472 million and the penetration rate in Z60Z had reached 51.9 per cent.
This has exposed mobile operators to an unprecedented crisis. The reduced dependence of users on APP has a direct impact on the incomes of mobile phone manufacturers, and in order to counter small programs, the Anjo Mobile Phone Manufacturers Coalition has launched “fast application” for small programs.
And Nubian is an important member of this coalition.
As with applets, fast-track applications can use the APP function without installation. This would have greatly improved the user experience of Androids, but the reality is that, more than eight years after its early adoption, its value now seems to be left to advertise and even to be repudiated by users as a tumour.
As a general rule, there are two ways in which the APP developers can: One is IAP, i.e., in-house purchases, such as some long video applications where users need top up to purchase member services, and the other is IAA, i.e., advertising.
The IAA model is now widely available and mature, and it is an important path for APP developers to complete the commercial closure.
On the market, in addition to Internet advertisers such as byte, which jumps through the mountain, mobile phone manufacturers also have their own commercial platforms for advertising, such as the China Whale Energy Advertising Alliance, and Mi Mi.
In terms of whaling energy, the number of advertisers grew by 200 per cent in 2025 and reached more than 107,000 third-party media worldwide.
APP developers want to sell on advertising, simply stuffing the codes supplied by the manufacturers into their own APP, even selling the “advertisements” inside the APP.
The model was later moved to fast application, and fast application was more “naturally gifted” when advertising than AP.
In the past, developers had wanted to get their advertising revenues on the assumption that the user had at least downloaded the corresponding APP on the mobile phone, but with the fast-track application, the premise had been broken, and the advertisers had been surprised by the fact that the ad jump was even shorter, without having to go through the “download APP” route, and could jump directly to the target-speed application.
This “hit-and-start” model is extremely smooth for users and reduces the loss of users in the process, which is a natural attraction for advertisers such as players, electricians, novels and short plays.
Data released by the Congress of fast-application developers shows that fast-application users have surpassed 750 million, commercialized 16 billion yuan and developed more than 30,000.
This 16 billion is worth not only to developers but also to manufacturers.
Since this year, the price of storage chips has continued to rise, and mobile phone manufacturers that cannot resist cost pressures have either raised their prices or simply stopped selling medium- and low-end machines, and there are few new 100s for their head brands publish.
But if the manufacturer ' s brand does not support high-endization, then it will have to remain in middle- and low-end markets, such as the old-age machine, for which the profits of hardware are already as thin as blades, and there will have to be some ecological benefits to software.
But it's going to be hard to use this road.
03
Because Ai's assistant showed up.
There is no doubt that the mobile phone industry is going through yet another little “programming moment”, except that this time the subject of the “counter” coalition has changed from a cell phone manufacturer to a major application.
Ideally, the user will no longer need to turn on the various AP usages on the mobile phone, but only to inform AI's assistant of the need, who will be able to perform a variety of tasks through the “screen automation” technology, so that AI can understand the screen, the simulator handles the mobile phone.
The dispute over Doubao mobile phones is, in fact, an essential stage in the paradigm shift of mobile Internet from “APP as the centre” to “Agent as the centre”.
For example, some of the security risks that may be involved in the operation of some of the AI mobile phones may also challenge the commercial closed loops that used to be used by the major apps.
When AI replaces people’s browsing, past recommended algorithms may be subverted, and even the APPs on mobile phones can be turned directly into “bottom-up tools” with a significant impact on both advertising and membership revenues.
But that doesn't mean that the development of the AI phone will stop there.
In fact, more than Nubian, many mobile phone manufacturers are looking for a way out in the context of China’s six-quarterly decline in smartphones. Even LLM does not want to miss the AI phone, such as the publish AI agent phone STEPX Neo.
Although Nubian has not yet entered the first class of the national mobile phone brand, it is true that the AAI phone could be an important breakthrough, especially for seniors.
In fact, for users, WeChat, the American Corps, the high-frequency software, cannot be accessed by AI assistants and experience is not much worse. Because you can still access the software by clicking on the APP.
The real need for the experience of innovation is those that can easily be mobilized for fast applications, map navigation, hospital registration, weather checks, menus, etc., low-frequency, unfamiliar access points, but new ones.
If Doubao is able to help users access this part of the function by embedding it, it's a lot of work to do.
Of course, it is also important that Doubao mobile phones are also expected to address the long-term disruption of older groups by advertising.
Old-age machines are the best utensils for some of the commercials that end up with hits and downloads, and there are designed advertising spots in their own news outlets, weather applications and even calendars.
With an AI cell phone such as Doubao, the APPs will also make some GEO optimizations to be selected and used, which may include reducing and eliminating some advertising.
However, in the current situation, Doubao mobile phones are designed to become an old-age machine and continue to optimize their costs, and most older persons are now excluded from the pricing of high-end machines.
Also, at present, through activities such as sun sheets, Doubao mobile phones are only granted for six months of membership rights, and the user will need to continue to pay for their needs.
In fact, the Doubao phone does not need to be eager for everyone to take care of those most in need.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Gem Box. All rights belong to the original author.