AI巨头Anthropic和CEODario Amodei多次声称公司模式会革命生物学和药物发现。 但是，Anthropic在星期一的IPO备案中更谦卑地指出，它承认自己在物理实验方面缺乏经验，并承认药物开发的潜在陷阱。 无论它去向何方
两年前，阿莫代写道，他对人工智能系统能够在短短五到十年内产生一千年生物学进步的想法"开放". 8月，他在X上的称说“Anthropic正在迅速加强它在生物学和医学方面的努力。” 在同篇文章中，他预测AI将会在未来五到十年内治愈大多数人类疾病，该公司还推动Claude于9月发现了一种"类似危机"的酶。
新IPO的备案仍然削弱了AI的能力，即“大幅度地加快生物学和医学的进步速度”，并将“科学进步十年压缩成年”，但对于它如何将潜力转化为实际，却有所保留。
称公司认为，其团队“需要第一手从事科学研究和药物发现的经验”，其生命科学活动将要求它“作为一个软件和研究组织从事我们历史经验以外的活动”。 这包括处理潜在危险材料、操作实验室设备并遵守大量条例。
Anthropic还淡化了自己关于酶发现的语言，说它“可能具有被开发为新型生物技术工具的潜力，也许可用于基因编辑。” (意大利语为强调所加。 ) 研究人员先前告诉WIRED，他们对酶发现的价值和效用持怀疑态度，一位一直在研究这些确切酶的科学家开始怀疑Claude使用了他的研究。 (称公司无论是其模型还是其分子生物学团队都不会获得这种材料。 )
IPO的备案表明，Anthropic不再将自己仅仅视为生物技术产业AI工具的外部提供者；它将生物技术发现视为其商业模式的核心部分。 和所有生物技术公司一样，它面临着药物开发的漫长时限。 任何AI协助的发现，仍需要用试管来研究，再用动物来研究，最终用人来研究。 即使AI能够帮助确定哪些新药或新药对人体有效，而哪些可能是哑弹，仍然需要几年的测试才能证明它们的安全和有效性。
Anthropic在存档中承认这些质疑。 “任何药物候选者或这些努力所产生的其他发现，都将面临生命科学产业特有的漫长、昂贵和不确定的发展和监管途径，并且永远不会产生收入。” (Amodei则在8月的X口供中
美国安全和交易委员会的备案通常比公司或其管理人员的声明更为谨慎，因为法律风险是夸大声称给未来的投资者。 而IPO明确表示公司相信其技术会推动革命性的进步。
但随着Anthropic进一步推向生物发现，它将面临与其他生物技术公司相同的难题：仅仅通过增加计算机来证明它们的价值。
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AI giant Anthropic and CEO Dario Amodei have repeatedly claimed that the company’s models will revolutionize biology and drug discovery. But in its IPO filing Monday, Anthropic struck a humbler note, acknowledging its lack of experience in physical experimentation and the potential pitfalls of drug development. Wherever it’s going, it seems, it will take some time to get there.
Two years ago, Amodei wrote that he was “open” to the idea that AI systems could produce a thousand years of progress in biology in just five to 10 years. In August, he said on X that “Anthropic is ramping up its efforts very quickly in biology and medicine.” In the same post, he predicted that AI will make it possible to cure most human diseases in the next five to 10 years and promised a “deluge of AI-accelerated drugs.” The company also promoted the discovery of a “Crispr-like” enzyme by Claude in September.
While the new IPO filing still touts AI’s ability to “profoundly accelerate the rate of progress in biology and medicine” and compress “decades of scientific progress into years,” it’s reserved about how it will turn the potential into the actual.
The company says that its teams “need first-hand experience doing scientific research and drug discovery” and that its life sciences activities will require it “to engage in activities outside our historical experience as a software and research organization.” That includes handling potentially hazardous materials, operating laboratory equipment, and complying with a bevy of regulations.
Anthropic also toned down its language about its enzyme discovery, saying it “might have the potential to be developed into a novel biotechnology tool, perhaps for gene editing.” (Italics added for emphasis.) Researchers previously told WIRED they were skeptical of the enzyme discovery’s value and utility, and one scientist who had been studying these exact enzymes became suspicious that Claude used his research. (The company said neither its model nor its molecular biology team would have had access to this material.)
The IPO filing indicates that Anthropic no longer sees itself solely as an outside provider of AI tools to the biotech industry; it sees biotech discovery as a core part of its business model. And like all biotech companies, it faces the long timeline of drug development. Any AI-assisted discoveries still have to be researched in a test tube, then in animals, and eventually in people. Even if AI could help sort out which new drugs or targets will work in humans versus those likely to be duds, it will still take years of testing to prove their safety and efficacy.
Anthropic recognizes these challenges in its filing. “Any drug candidates or other discoveries resulting from these efforts would face the lengthy, costly, and uncertain development and regulatory pathways characteristic of the life sciences industry, and may never generate revenue,” the filing says. (For his part, Amodei made the case in his August X post for streamlining regulations for the coming wave of AI-generated drugs.)
US Security and Exchange Commission filings are generally more cautious than statements made by companies or their executives given the legal risks of overstating claims to would-be investors. And the IPO makes clear that the company believes its technology will drive revolutionary advancements.
But as Anthropic pushes further into biological discovery, it will face the same conundrum as other biotech companies: proving their worth in trials that can’t be hastened simply by adding computers.
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