Reddit长期以来通过Google吸引了上百万用户访问其网站,许多用户甚至将"Reddit"一词附加到他们的搜索查询中,以寻找更好的答案。 Reddit正在重新思考它与开放的互联网的关系。 宣布公司在星期四的第三季度收入中
这一举动旨在保护其数据不被AI刮去,使公司能够与模式供应商订立利润丰厚的许可证交易。 但同样重要的是,这种转变可以帮助Reddit增加其收入,即使它在最大市场美国面临日常活跃用户下降。
总体而言,Reddit的全球日活跃用户在Q3中为平坦的四分之一以上用户,达到1.303亿;而美国日活跃用户从Q2中的5,320万下降到Q3中的5,070万并逐年下降2%.
公司并非是唯一一个看到这种下降的人;转向以AI为中心的网站已经影响到大多数网站和出版商,导致点击次数减少,因为AI摘要提供了不需要访问网站的答案,而Google的传统"十个蓝色链接"也减少了相关性。 (变化现在甚至影响到Google的底线
但是在Reddit的规模上,与这种下降相关的数字是巨大的。 昏迷的称搜索交通转介在10月份每周平均减少100多万次。 它警告说,如果这一趋势继续下去,到下个季度,每天活跃的用户可能会下降至低二位数的百分比。 (为了发挥这一作用:假设的10-12%的下降将使Reddit从第3个季度的1.303亿减少至大约1.15亿-1.17亿个每日活动人口。) 这是巨大的下降!
与此同时,Reddit在将观众货币化方面有了显著的改善,即使其增长减弱了。 收入逐年增长53%,达到8.95亿美元,比华尔街预计的约8.75亿美元要高。 净收入增长74%,达到2.83亿美元。 广告收入增长54%到8.47亿美元,而非广告收入,包括其AI数据许可业务,则逐年增长35%到4800万美元。
而尽管美国日用用户逐年下降2%,Reddit在美国的日用用户平均收入却上升了53%至13.82. 在全球范围内,每个活跃用户的平均收入逐年增加36%,达到6.87美元。
改用登录经验可以提高这些数字,因为登录用户通常对广告商更有价值。
与经常通过搜索找到去站点的登录出用户不同,登录出用户提供了更多关于其兴趣和行为的信号,这有助于更好地瞄准和个性化广告。
这些信号还有助于Reddit为用户提供更个性化的经验,包括个性化的素材,新社区关于订阅,推动投票,评论,参与等等的建议。 (这还包括向昨天的宣布新算法“For You”提供建议
然而,这种规模的变化可能是煤矿中的金丝雀用于开网。
Reddit联合创始人兼首席执行官Steve Huffman在Reddit网站上发表一篇文章,称表示:「我的结论是
指出公司认为向登录体验的转变不会是一夜之间的变化;它将首先在第四季度在美国以外的特定市场进行测试。 它还没有一个时间表,它还承认,查阅登录的首页很重要。
Reddit指出,登录并不意味着必须放弃匿名
Hoffman写道,仍有许多问题没有得到回答,这对Reddit来说是一个巨大的演变,但我相信
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Reddit has long attracted millions of users to its site through Google, with many even appending the word “Reddit” to their search queries for better answers. But as search traffic dries up amid the shift to AI-powered search, Reddit is rethinking its relationship with the open internet. In its third-quarter earnings on Thursday, the company announced it’s transitioning to a primarily “logged-in experience.”
The move is designed to protect its data from AI scraping, allowing the company to instead forge lucrative licensing deals with model providers. But just as important, such a shift could help Reddit to increase its revenue even as it faces daily active user declines in its largest market, the U.S.
Overall, Reddit’s global daily active users were flat quarter-over-quarter in Q3, reaching 130.3 million, while U.S. daily active users dropped from 53.2 million in Q2 to 50.7 million in Q3 and were down 2% year-over-year.
The company is not alone in seeing such declines; the shift to an AI-centered web has impacted most websites and publishers by now, leading to fewer click-throughs, as AI summaries provide answers that don’t require website visits and Google’s traditional “ten blue links” have reduced relevance. (The change is now even impacting Google’s bottom line, its earnings revealed.)
But at Reddit’s scale, the numbers associated with such a decline are enormous. The comapny said search traffic referrals dropped by more than 1 million referrals on average per week in October. It warned that if the trend continues, daily active users could decline to a low-double-digit percentage by next quarter. (To play that out: a hypothetical 10%–12% decline could bring Reddit to roughly 115 million–117 million daily actives, down from 130.3 million in Q3. That’s a huge drop!)
At the same time, Reddit has gotten significantly better at monetizing its audience even as its growth weakens. Revenue increased 53% year-over-year to $895 million, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations of about $875 million. Net income rose 74% to $283 million. Advertising revenue grew 54% to $847 million while non-advertising revenue, which includes its AI data-licensing business, grew 35% year-over-year to $48 million.
And despite a 2% year-over-year decline in U.S. daily users, Reddit’s average revenue per daily active user in the U.S. rose 53% to $13.82. Globally, average revenue per daily active user increased 36% year-over-year to $6.87.
Shifting to a logged-in experience could boost those numbers even higher because logged-in users are typically worth more to advertisers.
Unlike the logged-out users who often find their way to the site via search, logged-in users provide more signals about their interests and behaviors, which helps to better target and personalize ads.
Those same signals would also help Reddit provide a more personalized experience to its users, which includes personalized feeds, recommendations of new communities to subscribe to, pushes to vote, comment, participate, and more. (This also includes pushing recommendations to its new algorithmic “For You” feed, announced yesterday, which will combine posts from communities users belong to alongside other recommendations based on their interests.)
Still, a change of this magnitude could be the canary in the coalmine for the open web.
“I don’t know about you, but as someone whose life has been defined by the open internet, it’s a big change for me,” wrote Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman, in a post published on Reddit’s site. “But I’ve come to the conclusion that this is the right decision for our platform and the right decision for our business,” he said.
The company notes that the shift to the logged-in experience will not be an overnight change; it will first run tests in select markets outside the U.S. in the fourth quarter. It doesn’t yet have a timeline for when the change will be rolled out to all its users worldwide. It also acknowledged that access to a logged-out front page is important.
Plus, Reddit pointed out that being logged in doesn’t mean having to give up anonymity, nor will it remove its option to browse anonymously through its “incognito mode” experience, which is being rebuilt.
There are still plenty of questions that are unanswered, particularly around where the boundaries should be between logged-in and logged-out experiences,” Hoffman wrote. “This is a big evolution for Reddit, and not one we’re taking lightly. But I believe it’s the right next step for the platform and for our future.”
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