10月30日，美国科技媒体Ars Technica资深太空记者埃里克·伯杰发表深度调查报道，揭秘SpaceX在收购xAI并上市后与NASA关系的逆转。SpaceX已计划2030年前停飞载人龙飞船，停售2028年后的猎鹰9号商业发射，并拒接美军新单与月球基地发射任务。更意外的是，马斯克将猎鹰火箭的王牌工程团队调往孟菲斯抢建地面AI算力中心。面对星舰单次登月需20次在轨加油的高昂成本，全心押注AI的SpaceX对政府订单日趋冷淡，迫使NASA转而扶持贝索斯的蓝色起源。
以下是该报道详细内容：
在长达近二十五年的时间里，埃隆·马斯克和他在SpaceX的核心搭档格温·肖特维尔一直把美国政府当成传说中的黄金国。
两人当年就像挥舞砍刀的寻宝者，在波音、洛克希德·马丁等传统巨头盘踞的丛林里杀出一条血路，同时还要应付精打细算的审计人员和监管机构。他们遇到不公就提起诉讼，大声疾呼市场竞争不够公平，最关键的是用更低的价格向美国政府交付了高质量的航天产品。
NASA局长迈克尔·格里芬（左）于2005年4月20日在华盛顿的NASA总部与SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（右）会面
SpaceX最终挖到了这座合同金矿，随后开始包揽几乎所有订单。甲乙双方的关系不知不觉发生了逆转。SpaceX最初离不开美国政府这个救命客户，后来一步步变成了整个国家离不开的承包商。
如今钟摆已经荡到了另一端。除了星盾这类军用通信和观测数据服务，SpaceX对美国政府的大多数传统合同越来越提不起兴趣。
奥巴马时期担任NASA副局长的洛里·加弗曾大力推动航天局采用商业合同，扶持了SpaceX等公司。她说自己到现在还不愿相信双方正在走向分手，实在无法想象SpaceX未来停飞龙飞船和猎鹰火箭的画面。
但双方的疏远已经露出了明确迹象。
SpaceX已经通知NASA，将在2030年或更早时候停飞载人龙飞船。这是目前美国向国际空间站运送宇航员唯一可靠的交通工具。肖特维尔在今年9月直接表示，NASA接下来应该依靠波音公司来运送宇航员。她说SpaceX打算把这部分生意让给波音，政府在波音飞船上花了不少钱，理应让他们飞起来。受此影响，NASA正在加大对波音的投入。
今年10月有报道证实，SpaceX已经停止销售2028年以后的猎鹰9号商业发射服务。这套主力火箭甚至可能不再为NASA的任务服务。在10月下旬的NASA安全顾问小组会议上，肯特·罗明格透露，如果由龙飞船改装的美国离轨飞行器在2030年之后才发射升空，届时可能需要换用猎鹰9号以外的火箭。
美国太空军那边同样碰了壁。上周有消息称，SpaceX已经告知美国太空军，在履行完现有承诺后，公司不会竞标2020年代末期的三项新增发射合同。此外，根据三位知情人士透露，此前曾为NASA月球基地小型着陆器承包商提供发射报价估算的SpaceX，近期突然通知这些商业月球有效载荷服务计划的参与企业，公司不再为他们提供发射服务。
SpaceX目前仍在正常履行与NASA、美国太空军及其他政府机构的现有合同，成本依然比同行更低，可靠性也普遍更高。只是这家公司不再签署新的大型传统航天发射与空间飞行合同。过去十五年里，美国政府已经习惯了低成本与快速创新带来的航天复兴，现在这种红利正在消退。
站在SpaceX和股东的角度看，放弃数十亿美元的政府合同虽然令人意外，却可能是个算得过账的决定。SpaceX认为公司未来的绝大部分收入将来自人工智能。只是在美国太空探索和太空军事力量同时面临严峻外部挑战的节骨眼上，这家头号承包商选择了从公共航天领域后撤。当年的宇航员滞留空间站危机还能靠SpaceX救场，以后这样的日子恐怕不多了。
回顾早期历史，马斯克和肖特维尔在研发猎鹰1号火箭时四处寻找资金，真正拉了公司两把的正是NASA。
第一次是在2006年。当时还在猎鹰1号研发泥潭里挣扎的SpaceX拿到了一笔2.78亿美元的合同，为国际空间站开发货运飞船，公司得以迅速扩张。更关键的一笔订单在2008年12月落地，NASA掏出16亿美元购买了12次龙飞船空间站货运服务。那时候SpaceX连发工资都困难，马斯克和肖特维尔后来都承认，这笔钱大概率把公司从破产边缘救了回来。
双方随后进入了一段长达十余年的蜜月期。过去二十年里，NASA向SpaceX批出了约200亿美元的合同。马斯克对此十分感激，他在2017年还透露自己部分在线账户的密码就是我爱NASA。作为回报，NASA获得了可靠的低地球轨道货运与载人服务，美国航天能力也由此迎来一场彻底的变革。
到了2010年代中期，马斯克和肖特维尔开始全力拓展联邦政府业务。他们在2014年把美国空军告上法庭，要求获得国家安全发射合同的竞标资格，打破联合发射联盟的垄断。马斯克当时的表态很直接，哪怕竞争输了也认，但不能连竞标的机会都不给。
佛罗里达州新格伦号火箭遭遇灾难性故障后不到五个月，蓝色起源公司已几乎重建了其发射台
官司打赢之后，SpaceX顺利拿下国家安全合同，军方发射成本随之大幅跳水。到了今天，联合发射联盟的火神火箭和蓝色起源的新格伦火箭仍在缓慢推进服役，SpaceX的猎鹰9号和重型猎鹰火箭成了国家安全发射的唯一支柱。如果美军需要在未来12到18个月内把十几颗大型卫星送入轨道，全美国只有这一家公司能办到。
过去十五年里，每当其他承包商延期、超支甚至搞砸任务时，总是SpaceX按时向美国政府交付服务。NASA扶持过蓝色起源、塞拉太空、火箭实验室、轨道科学和波音，美军也拿出了20亿美元资助联合发射联盟研发替代火箭，但至今没有任何一家对手能在发射、飞船和天基数据服务上接近SpaceX的水平。
这种紧密关系从五年前开始变味。
2020年年中，正值疫情高峰期，SpaceX安全地将道格·赫尔利和鲍勃·本肯两名宇航员送入空间站。从2011年航天飞机退役开始，NASA不得不放下身段向俄罗斯购买联盟号船票，让美国宇航员花几个月去学俄语。SpaceX用一次为期64天的成功任务终结了这段尴尬历史。
星舰月球着陆器作战概念构想
不到一年后，NASA在月球着陆器项目上再次求助于SpaceX。国会当时批给这个大项目的预算非常紧张，在三家竞标方案中，只有SpaceX提出的28.9亿美元星舰登月方案符合NASA的预算要求。尽管星舰体型庞大且技术复杂，但SpaceX是当时唯一能稳定交出重大成果的承包商。
几乎在一夜之间，NASA最重要、最烧钱的阿尔忒弥斯登月计划和国际空间站项目，全都系在了SpaceX一家公司身上。
这种权力失衡在2025年6月彻底公开化。马斯克与特朗普当时爆发了短暂冲突，特朗普威胁要终止SpaceX的政府合同与补贴，马斯克直接回敬称要退役龙飞船。马斯克心里很清楚，美国政府的太空项目根本找不到替代者。五角大楼在2025年7月做过一次全面审查，最终认定国防部与SpaceX的绝大多数合同都不可替代。
两人后来虽然重归于好，但这起风波让外界看清了一个事实，美国政府需要SpaceX的程度，已经远远超过SpaceX需要美国政府的程度。亚利桑那州立大学教授克里斯·达文波特评价说，马斯克拿龙飞船相威胁极不负责任，NASA迫切需要SpaceX，SpaceX和马斯克本人对此都心知肚明。
就在与特朗普发生争执的前后，马斯克彻底认定人工智能才是他有生之年最大的工业革命。他开始调转特斯拉和SpaceX这两艘大船的航向，全面争夺AI软件、硬件以及地面与太空的算力控制权。
这一战略直接促成了SpaceX对xAI的收购以及随后的上市，也推动着SpaceX与特斯拉的潜在合并。合并能让马斯克更直接地控制特斯拉，同时汇聚起庞大的资产池，用于在地面和太空建设数据中心、研发自动驾驶汽车、制造机器人和巨型火箭。马斯克打算把AI芯片制造、电力基础设施、数据中心、大模型训练和终端硬件全部攥在自己手里。
在这样的蓝图里，六年前才首次载人升空的龙飞船成了没有前途的过时技术。哪怕猎鹰9号依然是目前西方最好、最便宜且唯一能满足激增需求的火箭，马斯克也不想再继续飞下去了。他在公司内部会议上经常抱怨，跟美国政府合作就像穿着铅鞋在糖浆里走路，速度太慢，野心也太小。
星舰传统有效载荷整流罩的原始版本，见于其2020年《有效载荷用户指南》
马斯克只想造星舰这样更大的家伙，为了研发这型完全可重复使用的巨型火箭，他已经在发动机和得州、佛州的发射场上砸下了大约150亿美元。
外界原本以为这会是一场双赢。NASA把阿尔忒弥斯登月计划建立在星舰之上，商业航天界也盼着便宜充足的发射运力，大家觉得猎鹰9号和龙飞船退役带来的阵痛很快会被星舰抚平。
但事情并没有朝着预想的方向发展。
SpaceX在2020年3月发布首版星舰用户指南时，曾展示过一个直径9米的翻盖式整流罩方案，可以在太空中打开并释放传统大型卫星。然而过去几年里，几乎看不到SpaceX在推进这种大型舱门。现在的星舰只在机身中部开了一道窄门，像派兹糖果盒一样往外弹射扁平的卫星。这种设计非常适合发射自家的星链卫星和未来的星智数据中心卫星，却根本装不下传统商业卫星或NASA的大型太空望远镜。
多位行业人士向媒体表示，如果SpaceX能公开承诺研发大型有效载荷舱门并给出时间表，对整个行业将是巨大的定心丸。但面对媒体的询问，SpaceX没有作出任何承诺。
完成今年这场上市后，SpaceX的目标变得高度聚焦。为了实现极高的财务指标，公司必须把海量的星链和星智卫星送入轨道，替NASA和其他月球基地客户发射载荷带来的收入，在上市后的财报里几乎只算得上零头。公司在近期提交的三季度财报文件中明确写道，目前相当大一部分发射运力被分配给了连接业务部门，预计未来还将向空间智能部门倾斜大量运力。
关停猎鹰9号和重型猎鹰项目的另一个理由是争夺工程师资源。这支王牌团队把猎鹰9号的年发射次数推高到了150次以上，拿下了全球近90%的入轨质量市场份额。在蓝色起源开出高薪挖人，斯托克太空、火箭实验室、萤火虫和相对论航天的竞争日趋激烈之际，顶尖工程师成了稀缺资源。
马斯克此前曾表示要把猎鹰团队调去星舰项目，但在今年10月的三季度财报电话会上，他透露了这支团队的真正去向。为了在2027年完成地面10吉瓦算力的部署目标，SpaceX正把这批横扫全球发射市场的工程师派往田纳西州孟菲斯等地，去建设地面算力基础设施。马斯克形容这就好比让纽约洋基队去打少年棒球联盟，虽然听起来不太公平，但能让公司在电力、冷却和基础设施部署上跑出远超所有对手总和的速度。
SpaceX重心的转移让NASA内部不少人开始替人类着陆系统捏一把汗。登月与SpaceX近期的AI蓝图毫无关系，履行这份合同在财务上几乎注定是一笔赔本买卖。
NASA阿尔忒弥斯计划经理杰里米·帕森斯上周受访时仍在维护合作伙伴，表示自己经常走访SpaceX位于加州霍桑和得州星城的基地，管理层对登月任务依然坚定。只是在SpaceX内部，只有被最高层视为重中之重的项目才能拿到最优秀的工程师、最多的软件支持和最充裕的资金。多位知情人士透露，现在享受顶级待遇的是星智计划、孟菲斯的巨像数据中心项目和星舰通用工程，人类着陆系统并不在此列。
按照技术流程，星舰必须先实现高频次入轨飞行和完全可重复使用，接着攻克大规模在轨推进剂加注，最后才能敲定着陆器设计。受星舰测试进度影响，至关重要的在轨加注测试已经多次延期，最新目标定在2027年初。帕森斯透露，这次测试需要从得州星城和佛州肯尼迪航天中心39A发射台各发射一艘星舰，而佛州发射台目前预计最早要到明年1月才能迎来星舰首飞，在轨加注被排在了佛州第三次发射任务中。
即便完成了在轨加注演示，接下来还要进行一次无人登月演示。NASA约翰逊航天中心内部的测算显示，一次登月任务大约需要22次星舰发射来进行在轨加油。马斯克随后表示实际只需要6到8次，NASA局长贾里德·艾萨克曼上周则解释说，6到8次是星舰未来的终极潜力状态。在现阶段，受限于星舰当前的运载能力，近一两年内执行一次登月任务大概仍需20次左右的发射。
过去三年半里，星舰总共飞了14次。即便未来几个月发射频率大幅提升到每周一次，为单次登月任务加满燃料也需要连续四个多月的专职发射。
让SpaceX在近期拿出20艘星舰专门服务一次NASA任务并不现实。一次星舰发射的星链V3卫星带宽相当于10次猎鹰9号发射，这些带宽未来数年都能持续变现。再加上成本账，即便早期星舰单次发射成本压到1亿美元，20次发射也要烧掉20亿美元，而SpaceX当年签下的包含一次无人演示和一次载人登月的合同总额也才28.9亿美元。
马斯克本人对登月竞赛也显得颇为冷淡。去年被问及是否在意中国比NASA更早实现载人登月时，马斯克回答说美国应该把目标定在火星，因为美国56年前就已经去过月球好几次了。
马斯克的冷淡恰好给了杰夫·贝索斯一个翻身的机会。
蓝色起源首席执行官戴夫·林普在去年11月表态，只要NASA想加快进度，公司愿意竭尽全力帮美国早日重返月球。多位NASA消息人士证实，双方过去磕磕绊绊的关系如今进展得非常顺利。
蓝色起源原本中标的蓝月马克2型大型着陆器同样需要在轨加注，研发周期漫长。为了赶在2030年前完成登月，蓝色起源在2025年主动修改方案，采用小型化的马克2型着陆器搭配多个基于马克1型改造的转移级，彻底绕开了繁琐的在轨燃料加注。在没有任何新增资金承诺的情况下，蓝色起源为了配合NASA的时间表重写了设计。
双方态度的差异在即将到来的阿尔忒弥斯3号任务中体现得淋漓尽致。这次任务计划在太空中同时测试两家公司的着陆器。蓝色起源专门打造了一台测试版蓝月着陆器，与猎户座飞船对接后，宇航员将进入着陆器内部驻留并验证各项功能。SpaceX则只打算从生产线上直接拉一艘普通星舰上去，猎户座飞船只能与它交会对接，舱内没有生命支持设备，宇航员也无法进入。
在今年早些时候NASA公布月球基地建设计划后不久，蓝色起源的新格伦火箭在发射台上发生了爆炸。事故发生后，蓝色起源展现出了罕见的高效率，不到五个月就基本重建了发射塔架，同时在佛州追加投资30亿美元扩建厂房，准备大幅提升发射频次。
新格伦火箭的复飞进度如今直接关系到NASA的月球布局。随着SpaceX在最近几周拒绝为商业月球小型着陆器企业提供猎鹰9号发射服务，整个阿尔忒弥斯项目圈子震动不已。这些承包商现在只能指望新格伦火箭及时顶上，或者期盼相对论航天公司的人族R火箭尽快成熟。
当被问及上市后的SpaceX是否还愿意暂停赚钱的星链和星智发射、抽出大把时间支持阿尔忒弥斯登月时，帕森斯也承认这是一个很现实的问题。
过去十多年里，NASA几乎把美国的载人航天运势押在了一位亿万富翁身上。如今这段合作出现裂痕，航天局要想在未来十年实现月球抱负，看起来不得不指望另一位亿万富翁来救场。只不过，贝索斯虽然砸下了数百亿美元，蓝色起源至今也只有三次轨道发射记录。现在，这家公司要在最后关头挑起载人登月的大梁，靠的是一枚刚刚炸过的火箭，以及一艘还没造出来的着陆器。
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On October 30, an in-depth survey report by Eric Berger, a senior space journalist in the United States technology media, Ars Technica, revealed the reversal of SpaceX's relationship with NASA following the acquisition and listing of XAI. SpaceX has planned to stop the manned dragonship by 2030, the commercial launch of Falcon 9 after 2028 and the refusal to take on the new United States military list and the Moon Base launch mission. Even more unexpectedly, Mask transferred the ace engineering team of the Falcon Rockets to Memphis to build the ground AI Calculator. Faced with the high cost of 20 refuelling on-orbit by a single starship, SpaceX, which is fully committed to AI, is becoming increasingly cold with government orders, forcing NASA to turn to support the blue origins of Bessos.
The details of the report are as follows:
For almost 25 years, Elon Mask and his core partner in SpaceX, Gwen Shortville, have regarded the United States Government as the legendary gold state.
The two men, who were like treasure hunters who waved machetes, killed a trail in the jungles of traditional giants such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, while dealing with well-calculated auditors and regulators. In the face of unfairness, they litigated for unfair market competition and, most crucially, delivered high-quality space products to the United States Government at lower prices.
NASA Director Michael Griffin (left) met with SpaceX CEO Elon Mask (right) at NASA headquarters in Washington on 20 April 2005.
SpaceX eventually dug up the contract gold mine and then started packing almost all the orders. The relationship between the two parties was unexpectedly reversed. SpaceX was initially a life-saving client of the United States Government, and later became a nation-wide contractor.
And now the bells have swung to the other end. Apart from military communications and observational data services such as Star Shield, SpaceX is becoming less interested in most of the United States Government ' s traditional contracts.
Lori Gafer, who served as Deputy Director General of NASA during the Obama period, has been a major promoter of the Agency ' s commercial contract to support companies such as SpaceX. She stated that she was still reluctant to believe that the two sides were breaking up and that it was impossible to imagine the future of SpaceX's dragonships and eagle rockets.
But there are clear signs of alienation.
SpaceX has informed NASA that the manned dragonship will cease in 2030 or earlier. This is currently the only reliable means of transport for United States astronauts to the International Space Station. Shortwell directly stated in September that NASA should then rely on Boeing to transport astronauts. She said that SpaceX intended to give Boeing this part of the business, and that the Government had spent a lot of money on the Boeing ship and should have let them fly. As a result, NASA is increasing its input to Boeing.
Reports in October this year confirmed that SpaceX had stopped selling Falcon 9 commercial launch service after 2028. The main rocket may not even serve NASA's mission. At the NASA security advisory group meeting in late October, Kent Rominger revealed that if the United States deorbiting vehicle, modified by the dragonship, were to be launched only after 2030, it might be necessary to switch to rockets other than Falcon 9.
The US Air Force also hit the wall. Last week, it was reported that SpaceX had informed the United States Air Force that once the existing commitments had been fulfilled, the company would not bid for three additional launch contracts in the late 2020s. In addition, according to three sources of information, SpaceX, which had previously provided launch price estimates to the NASA Base Small Lander Contractors, had recently suddenly informed the participating businesses of the Commercial Moon Payload Service that they would no longer be offered launch services.
SpaceX continues to perform its existing contracts with NASA, the United States Air Force and other government agencies on a regular basis, still at a lower cost than its peers and generally more reliable. It was only that the company no longer signed new large traditional space launch and space flight contracts. Over the past 15 years, the United States Government had become accustomed to the space renaissance of low-cost and rapid innovation, and that dividend was now retreating.
From the perspective of SpaceX and shareholders, abandoning billions of dollars of government contracts, while surprising, could be a cost-effective decision. SpaceX believes that most of the company's future revenues will come from artificial intelligence. It was only at the heart of the serious external challenges that the United States space exploration and space military forces faced, that the first contractor chose to withdraw from the public space field. The space station crisis of the astronauts of that year could have been saved by SpaceX, which would have been a few days later.
Looking back at the early history, Masque and Shortville were looking for funding for the Falcon 1 rocket, and it was NASA that really pulled the company.
The first was in 2006. At that time, SpaceX, also struggling with the muddy development of Falcon 1, obtained a $278 million contract for the development of a cargo ship for the International Space Station, which allowed the company to expand rapidly. A more critical order landed in December 2008 and NASA paid $1.6 billion to purchase 12 dragonship space station cargo services. At that time, SpaceX had difficulty paying wages, and Mask and Shortville later admitted that the money had probably saved the company from bankruptcy.
The parties then entered a honeymoon period of more than 10 years. In the past two decades, NASA has awarded approximately $20 billion in contracts to SpaceX. Mask is very grateful for that, and in 2017 he revealed that I love NASA. In return, NASA has secured reliable low-Earth orbit cargo and human services, which have led to a radical change in United States space capabilities.
By the mid-2010s, Masque and Shortville had begun to expand the Federal Government ' s operations. In 2014, they brought the United States Air Force before a court of law, demanding a competitive bid for a national security launch contract and breaking the monopoly of the Joint Launch Coalition. Mask made a direct statement at the time, even if the competition lost, but not even the opportunity to bid.
Less than five months after the catastrophic failure of the New Glenn rocket in Florida, Blue Origin has almost rebuilt its launch. Station
After winning the case, SpaceX successfully took over the national security contract, and the military launch costs were followed by a significant jump. To this day, the United Launch Coalition Fire God and the Blue Origin New Glen rockets are still slowly advancing into service, and SpaceX Falcon 9 and the Heavy Hawks are the only pillars of national security launch. Only this company in the United States could do this in the next 12 to 18 months if the United States military were to put a dozen large satellites in orbit.
Over the past 15 years, SpaceX has always delivered its services to the United States Government on time whenever other contractors have postponed, overspent or even ruined their missions. NASA has supported the Blue Origin, the Sierra Space, the Rocket Laboratory, orbital sciences and Boeing, and the United States Army has contributed $2 billion to the coalition for the development of alternative rockets, but so far no rival has been able to approach SpaceX on launch, spacecraft and space-based data services.
This close relationship has changed since five years ago.
In mid-2020, at the peak of the epidemic, SpaceX safely launched two astronauts, Doug Hurley and Bob Benken, into the space station. Beginning with the decommissioning of the Space Shuttle in 2011, NASA had to lay down and buy the Soyuz tickets from Russia, taking the United States astronauts months to learn Russian. SpaceX ended this awkward history with a 64-day successful mission.
Starship Moon Lander Concept
Less than a year later, NASA again turned to SpaceX on the Moon Lander project. The budget allocated by Congress to this big project was very tight, and only SpaceX's $2.89 billion starship landing programme met NASA's budget requirements in three competitive bidding proposals. Despite the size and technical complexity of the ship, SpaceX was the only contractor at that time able to steadily deliver significant results.
Almost overnight, NASA ' s most important and expensive Artemis Moon project and the International Space Station project were all attached to a SpaceX company.
This power imbalance became completely open in June 2025. At that time, there was a brief clash between Mask and Trump, who threatened to terminate SpaceX's government contracts and subsidies, and Musk returned directly to call it a decommissioned dragonship. Mask is well aware that there is no alternative to the United States Government ' s space project. A comprehensive review of the Pentagon in July 2025 concluded that the vast majority of the contracts between the Ministry of Defence and SpaceX were irreplaceable.
Although the two were later reunited, this was a dramatic reminder of the fact that the United States Government needed SpaceX far more than it needed. Professor Chris Davenport of Arizona State University has assessed that the threat posed by the Masknalong ship is extremely irresponsible and that NASA urgently needs SpaceX, SpaceX and Mask knows it.
Just before and after the dispute with Trump, Mask firmly concluded that artificial intelligence was the biggest industrial revolution in his life. He began to divert the two large vessels, Tesla and SpaceX, to compete for full control of AI software, hardware and ground and space.
This strategy led directly to the acquisition and subsequent listing of SpaceX against XAI and to the potential merger of SpaceX and Tesla. The merger would allow Mask to control Tesla more directly, while bringing together a large pool of assets for the construction of data centres on the ground and in space, the development of auto-driving vehicles, the manufacture of robots and giant rockets. Mask intends to take all of the AI chip manufacturing, power infrastructure, data centres, LLM training and terminal hardware into his own hands.
In such a blueprint, a dragon ship that had been launched for the first time six years earlier had become an outdated technology with no future. Even if Falcon 9 remains the best, cheapest and only rocket in the West to meet the surge, Mask does not want to continue flying. He often complained at meetings within the company that working with the United States Government was like walking in a syrup with lead shoes, too slow and too ambitious.
The original version of the traditional payload convulsor is available in its 2020 Payload User Guide
Mask only wants to build a bigger guy like the Starfleet, and in order to develop a giant rocket of this type, which is fully reusable, he has destroyed about $15 billion on engines and on launch sites in Texas and Florida.
It was supposed to be a win-win. NASA built the Artemis Moon on a starship, and the commercial space community was looking forward to a low-cost and sufficient launch capacity, and it was felt that the pain caused by the decommissioning of Falcon 9 and the dragon ship would soon be addressed by the starship.
But things have not moved in the way they were supposed to.
In March 2020, when publish ' s first version of the Starfleet User ' s Guide, SpaceX demonstrated a 9-metre-in-diameter flip-covered shrouds programme that could open and release traditional large satellites in space. Over the past few years, however, SpaceX has hardly been able to see the promotion of this large hatch. The current starship only opened a narrow door in the middle of the fuselage, ejecting flat satellites like the Pez candy box. Such a design is well suited for the launch of home-grown satellite chains and future satellite for a data centre for stellar intelligence, but does not contain conventional commercial satellites or large NASA space telescopes.
A number of industry sources indicated to the media that if SpaceX made a public commitment to develop large payload doors and to give a timetable, it would be a huge cyst for the whole industry. Faced with media enquiries, however, SpaceX made no commitment.
After completing this year's listing, SpaceX's goal became highly focused. In order to achieve very high financial targets, companies have to put large chains of stars and stellar satellites into orbit, and the revenues generated by the launch of payloads on behalf of NASA and other moon base clients are almost small in post-market financial statements. In its recent three-quarter financial paper, the company has clearly stated that a significant portion of the current launch capacity is allocated to the connecting business sector and that it is expected that in the future it will also have a significant shift towards space intelligence.
Another reason for shutting down Falcon 9 and the heavy falcon project was the competition for engineers ' resources. This ace team raised the annual number of Falcon 9 launches to over 150, taking nearly 90 per cent of the global market share of on-orbit quality. The top engineers became scarce resources at a time when high-paying excavations were taking place at the origin of the blue, with increasing competition from Stokes in space, rocket laboratories, fireflies and relativistic space.
Mask had previously indicated that the Falcon team was to be transferred to the Starfleet Project, but he revealed the true whereabouts of the group at the third quarter of the financial conference in October this year. In order to complete the ground 10 GW calculator deployment target by 2027, SpaceX is sending this group of engineers, which is sweeping the global launch market, to places such as Memphis, Tennessee, to build ground computing infrastructure. Mask described it as if the New York Yankees were going to play the Junior League, which, though not fair, would allow companies to deploy power, cooling and infrastructure at a much faster rate than all their opponents combined.
The shift of SpaceX's focus has caused a lot of people inside NASA to sweat for the human landing system. The landing had nothing to do with SpaceX's recent AI blueprint, and the performance of the contract was almost financially destined for a buy-in.
Jeremy Parsons, the NASA Artemis programme manager, was still maintaining his partners when he was interviewed last week, saying that he was regularly visiting SpaceX's bases in Khossan, California, and Texas, and that management remained committed to the mission. Only within SpaceX can the best engineers, the largest software support and the best financial resources be obtained only for projects that are considered the highest priority at the highest level. A number of knowledgeable sources have revealed that the top-class treatment is now provided by the Starwich Program, the Memphis Mega-Data Centre Project and the Starship General Works, with the exception of the Human Landing System.
In accordance with the technical process, starships must first achieve high-frequency in-orbiting and fully re-usable, and then attack large-scale in-orbit propellant injections before finalizing the lander design. The critical on-orbit apostille tests have been postponed several times, with the latest target set for early 2027. Parsons revealed that the test required the launch of a starship from the Texas Star City and the 39A launcher at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and that the Florida launcher was currently not expected to fly until January of next year at the earliest, with on-orbit bets scheduled for the third launch mission in Florida.
Even after the on-orbit demo was completed, there will be a no-go demonstration. Measurements within NASA Johnson Space Center indicate that about 22 starship launches are required for a one-stop mission to refuel in orbit. Mask then indicated that it would actually take six to eight times, and NASA Director Jared Isaacman explained last week that six to eight times were the final potential of the future of the Starfleet. At this stage, and subject to the current capacity of the starship, approximately 20 launches are still required for a one or two-year landing mission.
In the last three and a half years, the ship has flown 14 times. Even if the frequency of launch increases significantly to once a week in the coming months, full fuel for a single landing mission will require a full-time launch of more than four consecutive months.
It is not realistic for SpaceX to have 20 starships dedicated to the NASA mission in the near future. The satellite bandwidth of a single starship chain V3 is equivalent to 10 Falcon 9 launches, and these bandwidths can be continuously realized in the coming years. Added to the cost bill, even if the cost of a single launch by an earlier starship had been set at $100 million, 20 launches would have been burned at $2 billion, while SpaceX had signed a total contract of $2.89 billion for a single demonstration and a manned moon.
Mask himself seemed rather cold about the landing. When asked last year whether China had reached the moon earlier than NASA, Musck replied that the United States should target Mars, because the United States had visited the moon several times 56 years ago.
Mask's cold happens to give Jeff Bessos a chance to turn around.
Last November, Chief Executive Officer Dave Linp of Blue Origin stated that as long as NASA wanted to speed up progress, the company would do its best to help the United States return to the moon. Many NASA sources confirmed that the relationship between the two sides in the past had progressed very well.
Large blue moon mark 2 landers, originally the blue origin mark, also need to be on-orbited, with a long research and development cycle. In order to complete the landing by 2030, the blue origin voluntarily modified the programme in 2025, using a mini-mixed mark 2 lander with multiple transfer stages based on mark 1 modifications, completely bypassing heavy on-orbit fuel injections. In the absence of any additional financial commitments, the blue origin has been rewritten to match the NASA timetable.
The difference in attitude between the two sides is evident in the upcoming mission Artemis 3. The mission planned to test both companies' landing machines in space simultaneously. The blue origin created a test version of the Blue Moon Lander, which, after docking with the Orion spacecraft, will allow astronauts to enter the lander and verify the functions. SpaceX, for its part, only intends to pull a normal starship directly from the production line, with which the Orion spacecraft can only meet, without life support equipment and without access for astronauts.
Shortly after NASA announced its plan for the construction of the Moon Base earlier this year, the new Glen rocket of blue origin exploded on the launch pad. In the aftermath of the accident, the blue origin showed exceptional efficiency, with the basic reconstruction of the launch towers in less than five months, while an additional $3 billion was invested in the expansion of the plant in Florida, preparing for a significant increase in launch frequency.
The re-entry of the New Glen rocket is now directly related to NASA's moon layout. With SpaceX refusing to provide Falcon 9 launch services to commercial lunar small lander enterprises in recent weeks, the entire Artemis project circle has been shaken. These contractors can only now expect the new Glenn rocket to reach its peak in time, or the relativistic space company ' s human R rocket to mature as soon as possible.
Parsons also acknowledged that this was a very realistic issue when asked whether SpaceX was still willing to suspend the money-making chain and the launch of Starbucks and take a lot of time to support Artemis on the moon.
Over the past decade or so, NASA has been placing human space movements in the United States on a billionaire. Now that cooperation is fratricidal, it seems that the Agency will have to look to another billionaire to save the field if it is to realize the aspirations of the Moon over the next decade. However, although Bessos had destroyed tens of billions of dollars, the blue origin had so far recorded only three orbital launches. Now, at the end of the hour, the company was to provoke the beams of the moon with a new bomb rocket and a landing machine that had not yet been built.
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